The Long Investor

$SBUX

$SBUX reported earnings yesterday and again it was a miss, making it the 4th miss in a row....they knew they needed to do something in the last quarter and that is why they changed CEO.

The market responded well to that change but I don't think anyone would be surprised to see another miss, one quarter is difficult to make changes, which is why I believe they have paused their FY guide.

I think a pull back is due here to the green fib levels and we can see that the 200 Day MA is j...

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

I want to share the larger picture of Silver that we have been using since Feb ' 24, when the price action was still in the yellow wedge at $22 - $24.

Bullish Cup and Handle formation, followed by a bullish wedge and we used the heavy correlation with Gold to see where this was going next.....at the time, Gold was moving to ATH's above $2000, so there is usually a lag between Gold and Silver but the lag is always the opportunity.

Since then we are up +45% now.

The 1.618 Fib ...

$TLT

Druckenmiller has certainly has me thinking over the last few days and he has a 20% total allocation short against US bonds, which is not a small position.

From a technical standpoint, it's a big gamble right now with this current set up.....but from a Macro approach, I get it:

• He believes Trump is likely going to win and when Trump and the Republicans get in, it usually signals spending....which will affect inflation.

• Druckenmiller is taking the calculated ...

  2024-10-23 12:04:45 +0000 UTC View Post

HSI

It's moving slowly but moving in the right direction

We have a higher low now but fell just shy of making a higher higher today, so going above 20,960 and we have a higher high which will confirm a trend.

There is certainly some stability being shown across the Chinese ADRs we follow, with supports holding so far and some showing positive movement to the upside.

We want this to continue.

We have added to $BIDU, $BABA and $NIO with this pull back and will likely add aga...

$IQ

Ironically, this is exactly how we want $NIO to behave and it is showing signs of following.

$IQ retested the 0.618 Fib and over shot it slightly below the 50 Day MA which was also at the confluence level on the 0.618 fib at $2.46

Price has regained this level and has jumped aggressively now and up nearly +9% today.

I have added in the impulse wave to show where Wave 3 is, as always it is at the 1.618 Fib at $4.65

Once $IQ can continue to hold here and continue to move...

$VICI - WATCHLIST -

$VICI is pulling back after finding some resistance at the 1.618 Fib at $33, so we are watching for a higher low next on the small green fib levels I have added.

Price has already gone between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels, so we are looking for a hold here

No hold above the 0.618 Fib then you need to wait for a possible test of the Wave 4 level on the white 0.38 Fib at $31.70

$CELH

There are no changes to this Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern

The price action hit exactly in the centre of the right shoulder and on the 0.618 Fib today and has so far held

Price needs to hold above this level now and it can start making its way back up to the $35 level next.

The 50 Day MA is now in the way at $34.90 so if this moving average can be cleared then the bulls are in a good position to tackle the $35 level and this time break above it

This all appears to...

$SLV - SAFE HAVEN -

This is the ticker we recommend for Silver if you can not buy Silver as a commodity.

They are moving exactly together in terms of their movements but their dollar values are slightly off.

So if Silver pulls back, $SLV will pull back too.

$SLV is at its First Target now and Wave 3 limit so we will not be surprised to see a pull back here for Wave 4 but like I said under the Silver chart, this can run because a lot of money is flowing into this safe haven right now

I hav...

$NVDA

$NVDA has cut through the $141 level to make a new ATH with very little resistance

Price also hit $144 today, what bulls want to see next is a firm hold above the $141 level and they can expect a move up to $160 over the next few months......a very impressive earnings report could accelerate this.

This chart has been flawless.

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN looks like it is moving sideways here under the $189 level but we can see clearly that there has been a retest of the wedge breakout level this week and a bounce

We can also see that the price action has been using the 200 MA on the 1hr chart since August 9th for support, another bullish signal.

I believe $AMZN can break above the $189 level and hold but there is still 9 days until they release their earnings.....I suspect the breakout will likely come before this, with this...

$PFE

This wedge is getting tight now and we have a double 0.78 Fib test now, first test came in the middle of August and now again on the shorter pull back.

The wedge apex is also aligning with their earnings date which is due next Tuesday before the market opens.

I suspect no direction will be taken until the market gets more information from this report

What I need to see from this report is an improvement on their growth trajectory, this is what I believe is concerning the mar...

$SMCI

We have 1 buy in for $SMCI, we want 4 more buys and right now we only have 20% allocated into $SMCI

So far we have a rejection at the $49, however nothing has changed to the thesis here, we are leading into earnings and we need the result of the audit to finalise.

I have added the white fib levels to show where support can come, making a higher low is what we want to see, so holding above $42.

As always, between the 0.618 Fib in a pull back is showing weakness, we are not th...

$AMD TOP 20

I suspect there is some play acting here as $AMD leads into earnings next week.

Since the start of 2023, $AMD has always bounced after its earnings report and it looks primed for another bounce here to follow our Wave 3 projection.

Price has pulled back now between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels, where the 50 Day MA is and the yellow trend line support level....making this a confluence level

If this price can hold between this range into earnings then I believe with a positive r...

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$ELV - RC -

I liked the Impulse Wave count to $567 to complete Wave 5 but the the pull back has been very harsh here, accelerated by a missed earnings report and a difficult 12 months ahead for margins.

$ELV had not missed on earnings since 2020 prior to last weeks release.

RSI is deep in the oversold territory now as the price tests the 0.38 Fib which would be sufficient for Wave A to finish

A relief bounce is what I expect next for Wave B, followed by Wave C as shown.

$MSTR

$MSTR buyers are still not showing any concerns they have towards $BTC and have bought the dip. Price is already testing the First Target again now......remember, $MSTR front ran the $BTC move from the 200 Day MA to the $69.1k level too.

What will be interesting to see now is how $MSTR handles the second test of the First Target, another rejection here and we will likely get a pull back here too, which is why I have added in the White Fibs levels, paying particular attention to the 0.5 ...

$NIO TOP 20

We are still holding at the confluence level and holding this level since Thursday now. There was another test of the 0.65 Fib at $5.05 yesterday too and held.

It is still not clear that this level will definitely hold but there is some sideways movement, meaning buyers are stepping in at this important level.

What we don't need now is some unwanted news that puts pressure on the sector and flushes this down.......and we do have $TSLA's earnings tomorrow after the close unfortunat...

$BIDU

I am not happy with $BIDU's pull back as a Wave 4 now, since the pull back is below the 0.618 Fib and bordering on infringing below the top of Wave 1, I can not consider this as a Wave 4 pull back, so I have updated the chart.

It doesn't really change much for us because I believe this is in its ABC pull back now instead and we are searching for support for this pull back to complete.

I have brought up the 1hr chart here to show the impulse wave higher to $117 and the Wave 4 I hav...

$ETH

$ETH has also failed the breakout so far too and has not held on the $2670 level to stay out of this triangle, likely down to $BTC also rejecting at its breakout level.

Same commentary therefore applies to $ETH now too, minimising the pull back now and making another attempt at the breakout level again will put this in a strong position.

Failing this and a retest of the 50 Day MA again at $2490 is a possibility next.

$BTC TOP 20

The $69.1k level is not going to be easy to break out from, it has been a resistance level since March for a reason, so not breaking out with one attempt right now is not a surprise.

Bulls will want to minimise the pull back before attempting the $69.1k level again

So if an ascending triangle is formed just under this level, I would expect a breakout to follow.

I would also not be too concerned if there is a pull back to the 50/200 Day MA at $63.3k either to test this level ...

$BTI - SAFE HAVEN - WATCHLIST -

$BTI which is up there as one of the best performing safe havens this year is now pulling back and it is certainly welcomed.

It has bounced from $28 to $39 and a pull back to the 0.618 Fib and the 200 Day MA at $32.50 would present another great opportunity to add if you missed the April to Sept bounce.

Remember there is an 8.5% dividend here and they continue to repurchase shares here to bring more share holder value.

$SMCI

A very clear ascending triangle is being formed here now under the $49 level at the 0.618 Fib

It is also clear that the $49 level is an important resistance level, reinforced by being the important Fib level too

So what we do know is that when/if this level converts to support, this will give the signal to the bulls to add....and so will we.

The apex of the ascending triangle also aligns with the earnings date too at the end of this month which is not confirmed yet

So ...

$HIMS

$HIMS is up nearly +5% today after another Upgrade from BofA, a week after its latest upgrade

PT now is $25.

So if we consider the pull back down to inbetween the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels on the 3rd of October as Wave 2, then the 1.618 Fib aligns perfectly with the blue line at $25

Making this a very strong confluence level and also aligns close with when their earnings due on the 4th of November.

So for now I am letting this run to our Wave 3 target and will consider tr...

$TGT

I am not seeing any concerns yet with $TGT, it is staying around its 50 and 200 Day MA but above the 0.5 Fib support level at $150.

A pull back to the $146 level on the 0.618 Fib would be standard here too which would also give this a double 0.618 Fib hold too

I have not added to $TGT yet since my first buy but a double 0.618 Fib would attract me to add again here.

Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern remains in place too.

US 10 YR

Just about at the 200 Day MA which we have been expecting now since the start of Sept.

We want to see the price action reject at this level and come down but it may go above this level and on the retest of the 200 Day MA, we want to see it not hold and come down.

When the 10 Year pulls back then we can expect bonds to go higher then

$TLT is struggling at its 0.618 Fib so now is the time for the US 10 Year to reject to reverse $TLT then.

I have a lesson in The Learning ...

$OXY

Some support has been found on the 0.78 Fib at $51 and the price is testing the 0.618 Fib again at $52.33 today.

I always feel a lot more comfortable when a price retakes the 0.618 Fib on a Wave 2 or Subwave 2 pull back.

If this can be done next then we should see a move back up to the 50 Day MA and the yellow wedge again at $54.50

$BBD - RC -

Is still in this downward channel but appears to have held support on the blue support line at $2.22 which was also the support line in 2020.

Pulling back now after struggling to stay above the 200 Day MA

Still need to see more price action to say that the reversal is on here, a hold between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels between $2.56 - $2.44 would be ideal before moving up to the top yellow trend line next.

$LYFT - WATCHLIST -

$LYFT continues to look very attractive here

A break out of the wedge, followed by a retest and hold, then after the $TSLA 10.10 event the price bounced and looks set to test the 200 Day MA next at $14.40

A flip of this MA to support and the next move up could be to the blue line at $21.

Needs to take the 200 Day MA first tho and make it a solid support level.

$NVO - RC -

$NVO is moving to plan here, the 50 Day MA has been lost and there is a clear trend down to the next amber Fib level atv $109 next.

A retest of the 50 Day MA is still possible but a rejection here further confirms our ABC correction projection.

We can also see that and Head and Shoulders pattern has been formed around the Wave 5, again confirming the reversal.

$CVS - RC -

On the long term chart, $CVS is holding a critical support level that has been in place since 2003 and bounced very well on it this year, helped by the blue support line that has also been in place since 2018

The concern with $CVS is whether or not $AMZN is going to destroy it the more they move into the sector, especially as they start distributing drugs to households now on the same day delivery.

$CVS's margins are not bad and it is considered undervalued but there is a long ter...