The Long Investor

$PYPL TOP 20

$PYPL is at the Wave 4 potential support level and the Wave A level, so it is in the unusual position that in both scenarios a bounce is due once the $79 level is held.

We entered $AMZN and $GOOG over the last 7 months in this scenario and it worked out very lucrative for us, especially $AMZN when we bought at $160 in August and it hit $241 this week.

So if you like $PYPL, adding at $79 when you see a hold is a good entry point, losing this level and the price should sink down to ...

$SMCI

$SMCI needs to stop looking attractive here, we have a double descending wedge breakout now, where the price is exactly at the breakout level now at $31.40.

Price has been held down today by the 50 Day MA still, so there is still some work to do from the bulls.

For me, the low risk entry is flipping the blue line to support at $35.65, which will mean a clean breakout and higher low and the next levels for resistance will be the green line at $51 and then the Wave 3 target at the 1...

$RLX

$RLX has been consolidating here sideways since the middle of December without dipping as low as the 0.38 Fib at $2.06, which is also where the 50 Day MA is right now, so a consolidating range like this is common in Wave 4 as buyers step in on any dips, which is a show of strength.

So for me, any break above the 1.618 Fib at $2.32 and holding will trigger a confirmation of Wave 5 for me to $2.77

Impulse structure remains good here.

$ARM

$ARM reports after the close today and I really struggle to understand what these guys do and their chart is not straight forward.....CEO also owns a large amount of stock and is able to squeeze the share price by limiting supply, which caused the strong rally in early 2024.

A break above the wedge at $180 and their targets above are $228 and $275.

A break down and this could be in serious trouble, so losing the 200 Day MA at $139 should be a concern for holders, please be cautiou...

$BIDU - WATCHLIST -

Ok we have the lower high with a rejection at the 200 Day MA so this should allow the price to drop down to the 0.618 Fib or the 50 Day MA at $85 for a 3 wave pull back.....once support is held then I believe that Wave 2 is complete

So I have added in the 1.618 Fib in this case for Wave 3 and we can see that it aligns perfectly with the blue line $115

A hold at $85 is a clear buy signal for me and something I would be looking at taking advantage of

US 10 YR

Very nice drop below the 50 Day MA now and went as low as 4.4% and we can see that the trend is clearly to the downside and a test of the wedge line and 0.38 Fib at the very least will be tested shortly.

We want this level to be lost and drop down to the 200 Day MA too and this will help the market further to melt up and make another ATH.

$TLT and $TMF reacting positively to this too.

$ZS - WATCHLIST -

I think holders should continue to feel comfortable here, price has retested the 50 Day MA from above and comfortably above its 200 Day MA now after finding support on the perfect Wave 2 Fib level at $151 on the 0.618 Fib in Sept.

I don't believe the move has happened yet but I see a low risk move back up to the blue line at $259 pending a beat from their report at the end of the month.....a +30% gain is on the table here at the very least....above $259 and Wave 3 is confirmed.

$NVDA

$AMD's standard beat may have highlighted to the market again just how exceptional $NVDA is and superior their chips are.

Price is still above the trend line, above the 0.618 Fib and the 50 WMA now.

As long as this confluence level continues to hold above $114 then the bulls have the advantage and I see no reason why a retest of $140 can not happen at the very least for a relief bounce.

I am in both $AMD as a value play and $NVDA as a market leader mega cap play, as I am wit...

$HIMS

Ok this is going parabolic here but like I've said before, we'll accept this in Wave 3....you don't want to see this behaviour in Wave 5.

The 1.618 Fib is at $43.96, a number of people trimmed yesterday and if you were adding with us from $11, there is zero shame in doing this, lock in your profits and be ready to add again for Wave 4.

I will be on high alert to trim around the 1.618 Fib, as the rejection range is between the 1.618 Fib and the blue line at $48, which is why I se...

$SILVER - TOP 10 - SAFE HAVEN -

$SILVER holding above $30 is the equivalent of $HIMS holding above $25.41 and $PLTR above $45.

$NVO - REPORT EARNINGS -

Double beat from their earnings this morning and some attractive growth numbers. YoY:

Ozempic Revenue: DKK 34.6B | YoY: +39%

Wegovy Revenue: DKK 12.9B | YoY: +88%

Rybelsus Revenue: DKK 9.8B | YoY: +27%

Rare Disease Revenue: DKK 8.7B | YoY: +2%

North America Revenue: DKK 48.5B | YoY: +36%

International Revenue: DKK 32.5B | YoY: +19%

Price is up +3.5% in the PM now and aligns very nicely with our potential Wave B bounce up to $114 next.

Growt...

$OSCR - TOP 10 -

OK this was a double miss and a mixed earnings, Operating Margins improved and Total membership increased by +62% but Net Loss increased by 3 million.....yes only $3 million.

But what really caught my eye was their Cash and Investments: $4.84 Billion
If we consider their Market Cap is at $3.2 Billion from yesterday before it closes and down another -12% in the PM now, their Market Cap will likely open at $2.8 Billion.....meaning they have about $2 Billion in Cash and Investments abo...

$AMD TOP 20

$AMD reported a double beat:

AMD recorded $7.66 billion in total revenue with $1.09 in adjusted EPS for Q4 2024, while its data center segment brought in $3.86 billion instead of the forecasted $4.14 billion despite robust AI chip sales.

The Data Center growth has been a big driver for $AMD, so seeing this miss estimates has spooked the market post earnings....that being said, this is their blemish, does one miss on one section in their report merit an -8% reaction.....

$GOOG TOP 20

Ok let's start with $GOOG.

Revenue beat but EPS slighted missed by 0.23% but FCF estimates missed by 8% and what we have seen from assessing a lot of earnings reports, FCF is a big factor in determining a reaction post earnings and is likely the reason why the share price is down -6.5% in the PM now.

That being said....(and there are no changes to the chart)

Where is the price right now?

Exactly on the green support line at $193, above the ascending triangle bottom...

$AMZN TOP 20

If $AMZN smash their earnings this week and they have a habit of doing this, there is a very simple run up to the 2.618 Fib at $283, $244 is inevitable at this stage and the chart does not look extended now either, RSI is also at 66 which is not overbought yet either.

I would not be uncomfortable holding this into earnings.

$PEP

Slight miss on revenue today from their earnings and the share price is down -4.4% and we can see from the chart that this should allow the price to sink down to a lower low and therefore allowing the price to hit the perfect pull back level at the 0.618 Fib at $137.

The earnings were fine but market makers will use the revenue miss to get to the sweet spot

A hold therefore at $137 will be a buy signal

Dividend 3.6%

$SPY TOP 20

$SPY has been textbook, the chart and commentary has been textbook and I hope it has been able to guide you over the last 2 weeks of volatility

A 3 wave pull back here to the 0.618 Fib at $590, followed by a bounce now back up above the 50 Day MA is exactly what the bulls needed to do

Holding now above $597 and this can make another attempt at making a new ATH high above $610 and move up to $631.

$IWM - WATCHLIST -

$IWM moving very well here

A 3 wave pull back to the perfect support level on the 0.618 Fib at $220 and now bouncing

The low risk entry now is holding above the 50 Day MA at $229 which was the resistance level for the month of Jan, so flipping this level to support and $IWM runs again back up to $245.

$MOS - WATCHLIST -

$MOS has now broken out of the 2 year wedge, retested the breakout level from above, held the level and now bounced up to the 50 WMA and the blue resistance line at $28.35

A break and hold there above the blue line and you have your buy signal and a route up to $39 to the 200 WMA

This should not be ignored.

+3.2% dividend too.

$PYPL TOP 20

Down -9% now after a difficult earnings on margins but a lot to be hopeful for if the price can continue to move down for an ABC correction to $75.

Right now the Wave 4 pull back is still valid because the price is about to touch the 0.38 Fib, which is standard for Wave 4 and we can see 3 clear waves.

I suspect a bounce will likely come on this level and it could either be Wave B or Subwave 1 of Wave 5, so we will need to watch this closely

A rejection of the 50 Day MA from ...

$SIRI - WATCHLIST -

$SIRI is now testing the breakout level at $24.70

Remember the price has rejected at this level 4 times over the last 12 months so you will need to wait for a breakout to lower your risk for an entry.

But a breakout and holding above $24.70 and I see a route back to the magnet 200 WMA at $50 for a +100% gain currently.

I am watching this like a hawk.

Dividend of 4.43%

$LI - WATCHLIST -

My goodness it might be time!

$LI has always been a good indication for how the Chinese EV's will move and this has been a descending traingle now for the last 7 months but moving well along the 0.618 Fib, which is the standard Wave 2 pull back level

Price is above the 50 and 200 Day MA now too

So a break above the blue line at $24.40 is also a break out of the wedge, holding above this level and we are moving into Wave 3....with the 1.618 Fib being the target at $43

...

$MTCH - WATCHLIST - REPORTS AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY

$MTCH keeps knocking on the door of the breakout level at $26.30

Price is above the 50 and 200 Day MA here too

A positive beat here and we could see a breakout next and breaking out of this two year resistance line.

Following the Cup formation would lead the price back up to the top blue line at $54.

If there is a breakout, I always suggest to enter on the retest of the breakout level....especially when the trend line has been in place for so long.

$SBUX

$SBUX has retested the 4 year old wedge line from above at $105 and has passed the first test and bounced, if the price continues to hold above $105 and the bulls are locked in control here and Wave 3 is confirmed up to the 1.618 Fib at $137

$SBUX are apparently reducing the number of items on their menu to make it more streamlined and efficient, this will likely reduce costs and give them more leverage with suppliers

I can not be bearish here holding above this wedge.

$BLDE

A reminder of the big picture here.

Price flipped the 50 Day WMA support in October and we have got a retest of this MA twice now since December.

The important level to flip next is the $4 level on the blue line and then we have a move back up to the 200 WMA at $5.20

Above this level and this could move quickly.

$OSCR

$OSCR reports after the close today and the set up is certainly there.

Price is in the middle of subwave 3 and above the 50 Day MA at $15.46, a good earnings and I believe this has no issue breaking above the 200 Day MA and hitting the 1.618 Fib and likely overshooting it

A bad miss and there could be some pain and we could be looking at a drop down to the 0.5 Fib again at $12.88....or even worse, a drop down to the 0.618 Fib to complete a standard pull back.

For me, I am ha...

$BTC TOP 20

$BTC did flush down on Sunday night but managed to make a higher low and recaptured the 2.618 Fib level very quickly at the $95k level.

Price is now at the 50 Day MA and at the 0.5 Fib at $99k

I think the bulls have done a good job at recovering this and keeping the Wave 5 possibility alive.

A bounce now at $100k next will bring the crypto sector up with it I believe.

No changes to the chart.

HSI

The HSI is now back above the 200 WMA after today's session.

The price has only been above the 200 WMA once since July 2021 and that was in Sept '24 but the price did not hold above this MA on the retest of this level.

So right now this MA is at 20575, we want to see the price action stay above this level and I believe we get a run to the top of the 2 year range at the blue line at 22710 next.

Above this blue line and Wave 3 is confirmed for me.

I really like the set u...

$PLTR TOP 20

The delusional level has been hit and the price is sitting at this level right now.

It will be interesting to see how this opens and if there will be profit taking

I still hold 20% of my position here and will just leave it there for now

I have raised the red fib levels to reflect a cimb up to $100 and the 0.618 Fib is now aligning with the 200 Day MA

An ABC correction is needed here.

$EL - EARNINGS OUT TOMORROW MORNING -

There are the facts:

• We have the channel breakout, (a channel of 4 years)

• We have a pull back perfectly to the 0.618 Fib at $70, held and bounced

• We have a higher high here now too and higher low

• The 200 WMA is at $210, price is at $82 now

• It is a legacy market leader

• FWD PE is greatly improved on current PE

• EPS next year is +70%

For me, a break above $87 and this can run to...