The Long Investor

$BTC TOP 20

$BTC is still holding quite well above the 0.236 Fib after one flush recently when $BTC and $ETH ETFs launched on the Hong Kong exchange, Whales took advantage of this moment and sparked a large selling event but as usual, only to immediately buy again at lower levels.

We must comment on what we are still observing and there is still a series of lowers highs and lower lows and in this channel....my one concern about this channel is the potential fake break out which I have highlighted w...

$BABA TOP 20 - IMPORTANT NOTE -

Big winners for us this week have been the Chinese ADRs, just about every single one of them has experienced extremely strong gains lately, have all broke out of their respective resistance levels and the HSI has been positive for 10 Days straight now.

Let me be very clear here:

WE NEED A PULL BACK and when it comes and we see how a hold where we expect, we take advantage of it

I don't want to hear a single soul drop their head and moan when this sector does pull back becaus...

$AMD TOP 20

I am sticking to my guns here with $AMD, it has pulled back substantially and although the earnings was a beat, it was not a showstopper and in the same arena as $NVDA over the last 12 months.

$AMD and $INTC still have a lot of catching up to do but they are in the right sector and they are preparing to grow and their future, in terms of risk v reward, $AMD is still attractive here and holding above the 200 Day MA and the 0.618 Fib at $144 which we have noted as a must hold support leve...

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN is the only real big change for me this week and when I say change, I just added a possible bullish count in case it breaks above $190.

I really like how $AMZN did not go aggressive like $AAPL and $GOOG and did not play to the market by issuing a crazy buyback or start a dividend, why do this around ATH's....if I were buying back shares, I would take advantage of them at a lower price and rewarded holders who have stuck with the company, dividends also help this too.

Instead...

$ABNB TOP 20

An interesting position right now for $ABNB, it has consistently been making lower highs and lower lows but bulls have been able to defend the $155 line and keep recapturing this level whenever it is lost and it has been lost 3 times now.....which is one of the reasons why I sold my position.

That being said the bulls are certainly still fighting and just about finished above the 50 Day MA which is more than what the market could do.

As long as the $155 level is defended, chart re...

$AAPL TOP 20

Big question this weekend will be how the market behaves to Buffett selling 13% of his stake in $AAPL and selling for the second quarter in a row, he got this absolutely right and likely started selling as $AAPL rejected at its ATH and started its Wave A decline.

There is no reason to sell 50% of his position for him as he enjoys a very lucrative dividend payment from $AAPL and this is in line with Berkshires strategy.

The post earnings bounce was strong and we were expecting it f...

Earnings Week Ahead

A lot of the charts we follow are reporting this week:

MON: $PLTR, $SAVE. $HIMS, $LCID

TUES: $DIS, $CELH, $DDOG, $CROX

$RIVN, $WYNN, $OXY, $TWLO

WEDS: $UBER, $SHOP, $AFRM, $ARM, $HOOD, $ABNB, $AMC, $DUO, $TTD

THURS: $RBLX, $PLUG, $MARA, $U

$CLSK and $WULF reporting too

$BMBL - WATCHLIST -

$BMBL report their earnings on Weds after the close and it has been in a strict descending wedge since the start of 2023.

I have assessed their fundamentals and they are on the cusp of becoming profitable and this could be a trigger to reverse this stock.

Their Free Cash Flow has consistently stayed positive and is due to improve too for this year.

If they report a profitable quarter, this could move very quickly to the upside.

A break above the 50 Day MA and the wedge...

$BCHUSD - RC -

$BITCOIN CASH has been a strong performer since the start of 2023 and has jumped from $86 to $718 in this time and is pulling back with $BTC now too.

Price has pulled back lower than $BTC so far and has since held support on the 0.5 Fib at $403.

The 0.618 Fib is looking very attractive here as it sits exactly on the 200 Day MA, a flush down to this level could complete this pull back and move higher to new highs above $718 next.

$HIMS - WATCHLIST - HIGH PRIORITY -

$HIMs is a possible 5 - 10 X here, Fundamentals are improvings phenomenally, margins are fantastic and fair value is nearly 5 X from here now at $49.

CEO's comment may have helped this to move down more which adds to the opportunity here.

Earnings are due out on Monday after the close.....I think I will be putting a starter position in here on Monday now.

$HOOD

$HOOD like $IBKR is moving very well at the moment as a lot of attention is on the market right now.

Holding on the 0.38 Fib here above $16 and managed to finish the week back above the 50 Day MA which the market was not able to do.

Wave 5 target remains at $24 as shown.

$IBKR

Brokers will benefit in good and uncertain times as people over trade in times of volatility, the very essence of volatility means more active accounts, which is why we are seeing $IBKR continues to move as we have projected and on a fast track route to our Wave 3 target at the 1.618 Fib at $131.

$HOOD is moving similarly too and has held on its 0.38 Fib for Wave 4

$DOGE - RC -

I can't fault how $DOGE has been moving either, Wave 5 hit and has pulled back to the 0.618 Fib for Primary Wave 2 and just above the 200 Day MA.....so it is moving perfectly in an impulse wave, I would only expect weakness here if the 200 Day MA is lost below $0.11c. But right now it is moving as well as bulls would like, so I have added in the higher impulse targets now.

SILVER - IMPORTANT NOTE - SAFE HAVEN -

Silver acting as reliable as you would expect.

Pulled back in controlled manner to the 0.5 Fib and has finished the week just above this level and waiting for the 50 Day MA to meet the price action.

What we want to see is this moving average offer further support to the price action and help move this up to a higher high.

I will have no issue moving more cash in Silver if I see this play out as we have been expecting.

I think whatever happens in the market, whether it...

$PAYO

$PAYO have their earnings out before the market opens on Weds, it's a payment processing company which I use as part of my Patreon service....to be honest, the service could be better but the fees are better than its competitors but the service needs to be improved if I am being honest.

The company is only on the exchange since 2021 so growth can improve the company, so is there an opportunity here?

Price is getting very tight into this wedge leading into earnings this week and it...

$BABA TOP 20

$BABA This is very straightforward for $BABA now:

2021 Free Cash Flow level was $27 Billion

2022 Free Cash Flow level was $13 Billion

2023 Free Cash Flow level was $24 Billion

And the share price pulled back hard because of this 2022 dip in FCF.

If they f...

$SHOP - WATCHLIST -

$SHOP I believe is the next company to bounce for Wave A after convincingly holding on the 200 Day MA now 3 times, so support is confirmed here for me

We can also see that the 50 and 200 Day MA are closing in on each other too, usually this means a strong move will be next....and of course they have their earnings next Weds too before the market opens.

So I expect a bounce for Wave B next, like $AAPL and $MELI.

$WULF - RC -

Very neat wedge here formed after holding on the 0.887 Fib for Wave 2.

Crypto companies have stalled and consolidated lately and $BTC's fate is still being decided and there are heavy outflows out of $BTC ETFs at the moment.....but I think when $BTC finishes its correction, it will carry the sector higher including crypto companies.

Price is still staying above the 50 and 200 Day MA here too and as long as the price can stay within the wedge, it can break to the upside....losing t...

$TLT

$TLT is finishing the week on a bounce after the US 10 YR took a well needed pull back today.

We can see that the price action here has gone back above the 0.618 Fib and back into the descending wedge after having a difficult week.

We would need to see more to confirm that this is starting its move back up to Wave C and as long as the price is below the 50 and 200 Day MA, the trend is bearish.

We can see that the 50 and 200 Day MA are in the way of breaking out of this wedge...

$SE

Continues to move in its own world and very strictly in this impulse Wave 1, approaching our projected limit at the August '23 high.

Earnings are due on the 14th of May too.

This has been an almost 100% jump since its low at the start of the year, so I would expect some pull back shortly to complete Wave 2 as shown.

$PTON

In this strict downward trend after a catalog of bad catalysts lately, including the CEO stepping down and back to back negative earnings for the last few years.

Up 12% today post earnings but has not tested its 50 Day MA at $4 yet or the wedge breakout level, I think until these levels can be broke, this is just a gamble right now.

$MELI

$MELI has been textbook, completing Wave A between the the 200 Day MA and the 0.38 Fib which is as standard as you get from a Wave A pull back.

Bounce now is also in line with $AAPLs bounce for Wave B, the faster this correction completes, the faster it can move higher.

Wave C for me still needs to come in and I believe a pull back as shown would present a great opportunity for our members.

$NIO TOP 20

$NIO letting off a little bit of steam today and this is not a bad sign, like I said with the HSI this morning, its been a powerful move and we don't want any further parabolic moves, we want controlled and no squeezes. Traders and chasers want sequeezes so they can get in and get out and then there will be a break down on the chart....which we have seen a few times with $NIO.....we don't want that now.

$NIO is testing the blue line right now which we know has been a support line in 202...

$AFRM - WATCHLIST -

Beautiful here from $AFRM, US 10 YR cools down today and post $SQ earnings and $AFRM breaks higher above its 50 Day MA and looking strong

No changes to our chart

But note the very strong confluence level at the bottom of the wedge, at the 200 Day MA and inbetween the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib, once the wedge broke to the upside, this took off

Nice work here.

Wave 5 target remains at $58

$SPY TOP 20

$SPY tested exactly at the 50 Day MA at the opening today, the bounce was helped by a weaker jobs opening report.

So far the price has held under the 50 Day MA for a second test of this important moving average.

A hold here below this level would mean for the second week in a row, the 50 Day MA has offered strong resistance

Likewise, finishing above this level will give bulls some chance before taking on the 0.618 Fib level at $513 which I spoke about in last weekends update...

$FUTU - WATCHLIST -

$FUTU has broke out like all the other Chinese ADRs this week and with a lot of strength.

Tested its blue line yesterday but so far holding below this $72 level for now.

There was already a retest of the yellow line at $64 and bounced 11% yesterday.

If you are lucky enough to get another retest of this level and it holds then it is a buy, otherwise a break and hold above the blue line at $72 is the buy signal next.

$HIMS - RC -

$HIMS CEO has come under fire this week for supporting the Pro Palestinian camps in Universities across the US, his views are his views and he is entitled to them but he is seen as the CEO of HIMS whenever he speaks, not as an individual.

I believe this pull back here is likely in an ABC correction now and still holding on the 0.5 Fib but it may need the 200 Day MA at the 0.618 Fib for support at $10 before it can move higher.

My overall impulse structure has not changed and their...

$VICI - WATCHLIST -

I need to highlight this again because quite simply their margins and fundamentals are so strong that when interest rates do come down $VICI will likely move very aggressively to the upside but over the short term, there is a possibility to accumulate here and benefit from a dividend payment of 5.76%.

Over the short term we could still see a drift down to the lower Fib levels and the lower this goes, I will not be able to ignore it and I will start a position.

Net profit margin is...

$MA - WATCHLIST -

I have been doing some research this morning on stocks that have been beaten down lately and in oversold territories and $MA is sticking out like a sore thumb.

Fundamentals are incredible but with one issue, a high PE of 35 and FWD PE of 26....but it does deserve a higher premium because of how strong their moat is and their fundamentals.

I believe that if $MA can test its 200 Day MA at $426, it is worth a buy once it holds....$MA and $V are also strong contenders to be added to ...

$PLTR TOP 20 - ADDING SHORTLY -

$PLTR has its earnings after the close on Monday, so today and Monday are the last 2 days to buy before earnings.

We have waited and watched as $PLTR continues to hold support at the 0.618 Fib perfectly for this Wave 2 pull back and there is little more we need to ask of $PLTR right now leading into earnings.

So I will likely add to my $PLTR position today or on Monday.

The 50 Day MA is the resistance line just above at $23.30, a break above this level and holding would conf...