The Long Investor

$ENPH - WATCHLIST -

I am watching this set up closely here.

We said last week that the ascending triangle formation, with a Wave 2 support inside it at 0.618 Fib, is a very strong bullish set up once its breaks out of the triangle.....check out the $MRNA chart to see how this looks.

The price is now above the 50 and 200 Day MA and making a move up to the triangle top line now at $138.

So a break out here and more importantly a retest of the $138 level to confirm it as a support, will be a very ...

$IBKR

Is now within touching distance of our Wave 3 target at the 1.618 Fib at $132.

Those who are in here and have followed this chart for the last 12 months or so will know how consistent both the price action and chart has been with no changes here.

As always, getting to the 1.618 Fib we need to start preparing for Wave 4, it can go beyond the 1.618 Fib but it is a very reliable Fib level for Wave 3 completing.

So be prepared for Wave 4 to come in afterwards and then Wave 5 nex...

$CROX - RC -

Moving in this bull case now and testing the previous high now at $150, which was the high from the start of 2023. Price previously rejected at this level and spent the last year or so descending but the set up now looks a lot stronger and I would be leaning on the side of the bulls taking this above $150 to convert this level to support.

Then the First and Second Targets would be in play here.

Price is also above the 50 and 200 Day MA since breaking out of the wedge too.

$MPWR - RC -

Requested chart here but a really nice looking chart with a number of bullish indications.

Ascending triangle breakout, with a retest of the breakout level and using the 200 Day MA to reinforce the higher support level too.

Wave 2 also held between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib which is a hallmark pull back level to confirm a Wave 2.

I expect this to continue moving higher for Wave 3 and this impulse wave for the next 18 months.

$VRT - RC -

A number of requests have come in for this and this is as parabolic as you will see in the market right now and not somewhere you should be chasing.

Price was at $7 in Mid 2022 and now at $109.

Phenomenal move in such a short period of time

We had previously charted this and showed it was in an impulse wave moving higher but not going to the 4.618 Fib, a Fib level which is the extreme limit.

Do not chase here.

$NIO TOP 20

$NIO finished the week on the 0.5 Fib and 50 Day MA at $4.80, a level we had been watching all week and during this pull back.

Impressive numbers out again this week which puts $NIO on track to hit 20k for the month of May

The market will likely appreciate $NIO hitting targets but this must continue, 1 month of hitting targets is not a trend, hopefully this is the start of the progress we have been waiting for.

Up +3% in the PM too, so the market is rewarding this consistenc...

$DAL

$DAL did something it hadn't done in about 5 months last week, it pulled back by more than $3's ha, it has been incredibly consistent and even with this small pull back, there is no change to the structure or count.

I believe this is still in Wave 3 and can complete at the 1.618 Fib at $56 and will continue higher to complete Wave 5 over the next few months.

Some losses have been recovered in the PM today already.

$DAL is one of my biggest positions, mainly because of how c...

$HIMS

Up +4% in the PM now after $HIMS follows through on a +6% today on Friday.

Another chart that has been moving very well for us and we can see clearly on this chart that support was found between the 0.38 Fib and 0.5 Fib on Friday and bounced over 11% now.

No changes here to the chart or plan.

I expect a move up to the 1.618 Fib for Wave 3 at $21 to complete.

I am happy with my position with $HIMS and maintain my priority of adding to $BABA or $BIDU this week.

$A...

SILVER

So far we have had the perfect retest of the $30 level and bounced

We would need to see a higher high next above $32.56 to show that this pull back to test the historical resistance level of $30 is now complete.

Remember, our blue line here is a +10 year resistance line at $30, so getting a retest of this level from above and behaving as a support level now is a significant trend change.

Therefore, another retest of this level may be needed for further confirmation that thi...

$SPY TOP 20

I have added in the white fib levels for this Wave 5 too, like on the $QQQ chart and again they align with incredible accuracy.

The 0.38 Fib aligns with the green resistance line which caused the price action some issues in March and the 0.5 Fib aligns with the 50 Day MA now too.

So a pull back to these these levels should be expected and if these levels are confirmed as support, bulls would be happy to add again to buy the next leg up to complete Wave 5.

Losing the 50 Day M...

$QQQ TOP 20

$QQQ and $SPY have run for a month now leading up to $NVDA reporting this week, it finally decided to cool down, as the positive earnings was likely baked into this aggressive run.

A pull back here to the 0.38 Fib would bring the price action down to the $444 level, which was a resistance level leading up to the middle of April.

The 0.5 Fib would be on the 50 Day MA too.

So a pull back is likely to continue over the next few weeks before moving higher to complete Wave 5.

$TSLA TOP 20

$TSLA has now bounced on the 0.5 Fib and the 50 Day MA at $168 and holding support above the larger 0.618 Fib on the white line.

Bulls have past the first test of holding support above the 50 Day MA but will need to make a higher higher next, above the post earnings high to confirm that this can go higher to the 200 Day MA and ultimately test the yellow trend line at $220.

If the 50 Day MA is lost at any stage, then the price action will likely come down to the yellow trend line o...

$SE TOP 20

I think it is possible that I can eliminate one of the impulse waves next week as the price has been following the first green trend line incredibly well.

The pull back for Wave 2 on the 0.38 Fib was short but it was a strong enough confluence level to propel this higher and it has been building strength as it continues in this Wave 3.

Holders here, who have held over the last year do not need to do anything here but continue holding strong, you are certainly past the worst parts ...

$PLTR TOP 20

The probability of $PLTR retesting the 200 Day MA is increasing here, in spite of how slow it has been but it continues to drift sideways, as it waits for the 200 Day MA to move higher.

I am not seeing any weakness here of the structure breaking down or losing the 200 Day MA and the fundamentals have not changed for $PLTR either.

I am seeing the same behaviour as $ETH before it broke to the upside.

A catalyst may be needed but a firm test and confirmation of support on the 2...

$NKE TOP 20

The 50 Day MA continues to dominate the direction of the price action and consistently behaves as a resistance level over the last 6 months.

Shorts are probably enjoying this reliability from the 50 Day MA too.

So when a breakout does come to the upside, it will be a strong indication that the trend has changed.

For now, bears and shorts are still in control and this has significantly broken away from the trend in the market.

$MSFT TOP 20

$MSFT has been the steadiest Mega Cap over the last 2 months and has again regained its 50 Day MA with no immediate threat of losing this level once again, it has also made a new ATH too.

If $MSFT continues to follow the market, there should be no issue finishing its Wave 5 at $456

Another retest of the 50 Day MA can not be ruled out either, as we will see on the $QQQ and the $SPY charts that this is possible.

A retest and hold on the 50 Day MA may be worth adding for small ...

$INTC TOP 20

$INTC is falling out of sync with the other Semi's in the sector and the market

Testing the 0.78 Fib again to end the week at $30 too.

Losing this level and $INTC is on a fast track route to Wave 5 in red level at $24, just above the buy zone, which makes $INTC attractive again and undervalued with a margin of error.

$GOOG TOP 20

$GOOG is using the trend line to continue moving higher in a controlled manner, it also continues to behave the strongest out of our legacy Mega Cap favourites, $NVDA is the front runner of this market now however.

No threat of losing the 50 Day MA here either and the looks to be very little in the way here moving higher to $190 over the next few months, with $200 being the upper limit.

$SHOP TOP 20

We sold 20% of our holding in $HIMS at $20 to buy our first position in $SHOP at $57.40, $HIMS pulled back to $16 after this and $SHOP maintained its level for the week, making this a good use of our profits in $HIMS and now our entire position in $SHOP is profits from $HIMS.

This is where we see the real magic of compound investing, where our profits are used to start a position and when we start gaining, our profits are making profits, this causes exponential returns to our portfolio....

$PYPL TOP 20

We observed $ARK building a position in $PYPL this week which was a slight surprise......a surprise because she was accumulating at a healthy position, above the 200 Day MA and towards the end of our Wave C....which is not something they typically do.

$PYPL is in an accumulation phase right now so the strong supply of shares, so it does make it easier for large funds like this to accumulate.

Sometimes, I do not like when our analysis aligns with $ARK but if this is a pivot change ...

$DIS TOP 20

$DIS is approaching a strong confluence level between the 200 Day MA and the red trend line shortly at $97.

The pull back has been sharp and fast, which doesn't really matter if it means it can get its corrective wave complete and out of the way before the impulse wave continues higher next.

A test and hold on the 200 Day MA at $97 and I will be happy to confirm that the ABC correction is complete here too and a bounce will come next and I will add the next impulse wave.

Fun...

$COST TOP 20

$COST finished the week at the 2.27 Fib at $808 and is looking very extended now in this Wave 5 and has not had any meaningful pull backs since April now.

Again this is not somewhere I would be looking at getting in at and the fundamentals have also gone extended.

Wait for the inevitable correction to come in next makes sense to get in and it would be a steady company to add to any long term portfolio.

$BTC TOP 20

I uploaded $BTC on Friday with the bearish count and in my last upload, I uploaded the bullish count in the short term.

It is worth remembering that both long term views of $BTC are bullish and I see the price going to $125k over the next 12-18 months.

Bulls should prefer to see the ABC correction to come in now instead of waiting for one more leg up and then completing its ABC count.....this would also tie $BTC heavily with the US market, which is exactly what $BTC was designed n...

$BABA TOP 20

$BABA is a chart we uploaded regularly during the week so I believe we are all up to date here but it is worth reminding that $BABA is at the top of my buy list right now, as the price action pulls back to a very strong confluence level of 0.5 Fib and the 200 Day MA at $79.

The 50 Day MA is also moving up to this confluence level too.

A hold here, like we are seeing on the $ABNB chart and I will add again.

So I will add when support is found and if the 200 Day MA is not held...

$AMZN TOP 20

Interesting here from $AMZN, finished the week below its 50 Day MA which seems out of character for the Mega Caps right now.

The double top is also something we need to monitor too.

The 50 Day MA could easily be recaptured to start the week off on Tuesday, so very little should be done on seeing this right now.....we always need a confirmation of a support or resistance.

My position in $AMZN is likely not going to change here for some time until I see a correction, and then ...

$AMD TOP 20

Mixed week for $AMD, started the week strong as the market waited for $NVDA to report and when they did, it got pulled up with it, initially up +3% post earnings and looked strong, when the market started its sell off on Thursday, $AMD was not spared and rejected back below its 50 Day MA, so this important resistance level has not been flipped to support just yet.

Structure remains in place and still above the 200 Day MA but bulls need to flip the 50 Day, which is also the previous ATH ...

$ABNB TOP 20

$ABNB dropped below the $145 line this month but we can see that the 200 Day MA has been an effectively support level since dropping below $145 and this sits between the 0.618 - 0.78 Fibs

We have shown over the last 18 months that $ABNB has a strong healthy relationship with the 0.618 Fib and 4 out of 5 times it has bounced strong on this level.

I do not see how this time it could be any different.

A bounce here and a recapture of the $145 level and $ABNB remains in a good p...

$AAPL TOP 20

I hope everyone is enjoying their long weekend, I will add half of the Top 20 list this evening and the remaining tomorrow and we'll be prepared for the week ahead.

Many believed that after $NVDA reported, this would give the green light to the market to push higher but the reaction was initially used to let off some steam and the market took a badly needed pull back post earnings....$NVDA gained $250 Billion in Market Cap but the rest of the market suffered, across all sectors, this en...

Technical Analysis

Thoughts to consider

$ABCL - RC -

A request has come in for this chart but there is very little that can be done here while the price action is in this steep descending wedge.

We can see that the 50 Day MA has been mimicking the top wedge trend line, so this is a strong resistance level.

They also missed on their earnings too this month, so bulls may need to wait until the next earnings to turn this around, we can see that the next earnings is due at the end of the wedge apex in August

Levels to break out of...