The Long Investor

$MSFT TOP 20

This is the same chart we have used for the last few months and again uploaded last weekend, Wave 5 has not changed.

$MSFT tested its 50 Day MA yesterday with a lot of the Mega Caps and needed a strong day today to recover from that test....so it needed an IT outage like it needed a hole in the head, sometimes when it rains, it pours.

$CRWD is the main security protection used by $MSFT so it is down in the PM now and we can see that there is a battle to keep the 50 Day MA right n...

$HIMS

$HIMS pulled back with the market yesterday and it appears to be a heavy rejection at the 1 Fib at $22.58, the structure is still in place and the price managed to find support on the green Fib levels we were watching from the middle of June.

I have added in the Red Impulse Invalidation line now, which means $HIMS is likely in its ABC correction going below this line, which would correspond to the original chart I had been using for $HIMS but for now, we are keeping with this structure ...

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

SILVER did not hold its $30 level retest that we have been waiting for and has lost its 50 Day MA too at $30, so I have added in the corrective pattern I believe will play out now.

I would be surprised if a lower low below the 0.38 Fib does not come in next, so I expect a move down to at least the 0.5 Fib and we can see that the 200 Day MA is at the 0.618 Fib now too at $26, if we get the chance to add at this level leading into Sept, where I still expect the Fed to Rate Cut, then we ta...

$CRWD

$CRWD has upset the world this morning and we have just seen how important they are to the global digital ecosystem, however this was a big test for them and unfortunately they have not come out of this very well.

IT failures of this magnitude can not simply happen and apparently this was not a cyberattack either, so $CRWD has shown that their system is vulnerable now....this is after only being added to the S&P 500 last month.

$CRWD came very close to testing its 200 Day MA ...

$LABU- BIOTECH ETF -

$LABU is pulling back to retest the breakout level of the ascending wedge.

For me this breakout level is at $121 and $125, there is a one high at the $125 that must be taken into account too, so consider this range a test.

A hold at this level and this sector and ETF is looking very strong

I have added in the 1.618 Fib as a guide to show where this potential Subwave 3 can bounce to and not surprising it is very close to the First Target

So that is the plan, a hold at t...

$UBER

$UBER has lost is 50 Day MA today and is very close to testing its 200 Day MA next at $64.90

In the last update I warned of this decline and would likely be a shorters dream (tho we never short here)
If the 200 Day MA is not held as support, expect a drop down to test the 0.38 Fib first at $58 and even further at the 0.5 Fib at $50

Again, $UBER at $50 would be attractive to buy, not before that for me.

$WULF

Hit the 1.618 Fib exactly at $6.51 yesterday and rejected today along with the market and the sector, this has worked out very well for us here and for current holders.

So wait for the pull back to complete for Wave 4 before considering adding again

Wave 4 target is always at the 0.38 Fib, which is at $4.36 here and the pull back should move in 3 waves down.

Since this has followed our count extremely well, I expect that to continue.

$VIX

$VIX has bounced strong today and is above its 50 and 200 Day MA after this week, we can see that it was consolidating between the blue lines at $14 and $10 since the end of April and has now broken higher, which has happened 4 times since the end of 2022.

Each time the $VIX has rejected at the yellow line or just slightly below it, this rejection line is at $17.10 now.

So the $VIX can go back up to this trend line again but only until we see this line converted to support would w...

$SHOP TOP 20

That has been a rollercoaster week for $SHOP, first bouncing on the 0.38 Fib after it was upgraded by BofA, bounced to the 200 Day MA and rejected and has now sunk back down with the market to the 50 Day MA at $63.

We did not chase $SHOP when it bounced in the PM on Tuesday, we said to wait until after the 200 Day MA has been flipped to support and this is why we do this, we do not want to be caught chasing.

Now the market has given us another chance.

So the initial plan rem...

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN is below the blue support line and the 50 Day MA but this has happened twice now since April and each time it has moved to a higher high, even the route back to the Bezos selling line at $200 would give a tidy profit from here.

We can see that support was found on a support trend line today, in line with the last 2 times the 50 Day MA was lost.

Earnings date has not been announced but I expect it to be soon and I expect it to be a beat....we just can't say what the guidance ...

$PLTR TOP 20

Well this is something now

Above the blue line at $29.30 now, no retest of the breakout level because this has just happened.

This is certainly bullish here making new highs, Wedbush refers to $PLTR as the AI Messi, gave $PLTR a PT of $50 today, which makes our Wave 3 target at the 1.618 Fib conservative at $41.

But we can see our Wave 5 target is at $51....so I can see where they got the PT of $50 at.

We will be watching this like a hawk still and if the blue line ca...

$VICI - WATCHLIST - POTENTIAL SAFE HAVEN -

$VICI for me is still the best real estate play when interest rates are finally cut.

With a Gross Margin of 995
and New Margin of 70%

This is a fundamental dream.

Chart looks good too and the price is back above the 50 and 200 Day MA and testing the top trend line now at $31.10, holding above this level is the big move to watch, if it can continue to hold here, it can move up to the top green line at $35.

Above this level and the 1.618 Fib is all the way up at $64...

$DELL - WATCHLIST -

This chart has been playing out brilliant for us

Calling the top at the 3 Fib at $178 and it has been on a strong descent since.

Losing the 50 Day MA and testing the 0.38 Fib yesterday at $123.

A lower low has been made here so technically the pull back can complete here and we can see 3 waves.

The FWD PE is at 13 now

RSI is at 34

and no analyst has $DELL down at these levels now.

Let's watch for a hold of support now, if $123 can not hold, the 200 D...

$CMG - RC -

$CMG is a company that intrigues me, a company that is now valued at $75 Billion which has effectively very weak barriers to entry but has done an excellent job expanding, keeping costs low and doing the simple things correctly.....I love the food aswell....but there is nothing stopping another company coming into this market and doing the same, it may take time but there is a risk that market share can be taken her

Which always amazed me how heavy Bill Ackman went in here but he has be...

$CELH - WATCHLIST -

$CELH hit the $50.42 target like clockwork yesterday, a target I gave $CELH back in March when the price in the $90's

This is where the bulls need to step in now, the only support left in this yellow channel is at $48, this channel has been tested 3 times since 2022 and has held each time.

So if the price can hold at $48, then you have your buy signal, and a bounce back to the 200 Day MA at $67 to start is realistic.

$CLSK

That yellow support line at $15 is a fortress!
Traders must be milking these rotations.

Back above the 50 Day MA and bounced 20% on the trend line again but needs to make a higher high above $21 to get out of this consolidation.

Holding above $21 and the top yellow line is the next test at $23.50, breaking above this level at Wave 5 remains at the target at $25.63

$SOXL

$SOXL is painting a bleak picture now and it must be said that this is a 3 X leveraged position ETF, so will always look for volatile.

Price had pulled back just short of the blue line at $70 and has now made a lower low and lost the 50 Day MA which is not a good sign, the 50 Day MA would need to be recovered quickly to stop the onslaught here of selling, if $NVDA continues selling, it will likely reject its 50 Day on a retest.

$AMD is in this ETF but only accounts for 5.46% of th...

$HAL

$HAL reports their earnings tomorrow before the market opens and it has been moving well leading up to this report.

The ascending triangle bottom line was lost at the end of May when the international pressures in the middle east started to ease off but this support level was recaptured last week and there is a test of the 200 Day MA from below now at $36.

A flip of this level...and this could easily come tomorrow from a strong report, would mean that this can climb back up to the...

$AMD TOP 20

The Semi sell off yesterday was aggressive for a number of reasons:

• Rotation out of Tech/Ai stocks into Small Caps continued

• $NVDA lead this sell off and caused a ripple effect within its sector

• The US is considering more sanctions on Semi companies in the US towards China

• Trump and Dimon announced that the Fed should not reduce rates before the election, which upset the market as it was positioning itself for a Rate Cut in Sept.....

  2024-07-18 11:49:59 +0000 UTC View Post

HSI

The market continues to wait for details of any potential economic reforms from China's Third Plenum today, I am not aware what time this finalises at but I suspect something would need to be announced very shortly

'China stocks closed higher after struggling for direction on Thursday, as investors cautiously awaited policy news from a key leadership gathering in Beijing that is expected to end later in the day.' from Reuters

We are still observing a higher low so far o...

$OXY - WATCHLIST -

How many people in this group and online were kicking themselves when $OXY ran from $56 to $71 between Feb and March, now the price is back to $63, having retested the wedge trend line, held support and now back above the 50 and 200 Day MA, with a higher low now in.

This is very attractive here, so attractive that I may have to make a move shortly.

It has the Buffett approval, it is also around the price where he added aggressively last month too.

It has a dividend and it is...

$PFE

This sneaky snake

Consolidates for the entire length of 2024, holds on the 0.618 Fib for Wave 2 and now breaks out above its 50 and 200 Day MA and makes a higher high and goes above $30 on the same day the market is showing weakness.

Impulse wave is looking very good here and no changes to our chart.

I believe if $PFE offers the market a retest of the 200 Day MA and holds above this level, it needs to be respected and bought.

Dividend is extremely high for a company of...

$BABA TOP 20

$BABA looks set to finish the day resting on its 200 Day MA after testing it perfectly today at $76.50 to the cent.

Subwave 3 went just slightly ahead of the 1.618 Fib but rejected on the retest and the pull back now is at the 0.5 Fib, all very standard here and no break down of it structure, Chinese ADRs faired better than US stocks overall today.

Last day of the Chinese event tomorrow, there was some rumours floating around that their leader may have been ill today but I did not...

$QQQ TOP 20

No changes to this chart that we uploaded at the weekend

We can see clearly here that the price action has fallen right down to the 200 MA on the 1HR Chart

There has been excessive selling in the Tech sector right now, lead by the Semi leader $NVDA....only a couple of weeks after stock splitting, which we indicated at the time is a sign of topping out.

There is also a potential for market makers to deliberately pull back the market to present more value for when the Mega C...

$V

$V is pulling back in a bullish channel here and has so far found support on its 200 Day MA and is sitting between the 50 and 200 Day MA now, as the price gets squeezed, we could see a breakout to the upside and resume Wave 3, so I believe $V is in a strong position here for us to start considering this, which is why I propose adding it to the Top 20 list below.

If the 200 Day MA is not held, I would expect a test of the blue line next at $253, which would be a level I would not ignore....

TOP 20 RESHUFFLE POLL

Top 20 Reshuffle

I am considering adding $V to the Top 20 list and will drop $COST

$COST is a fantastic company but I do not believe it is offering value at this level

I will look at adding $COST back into the Top 20 list at a later stage when the price pulls back and completes its ABC correction.

$V right now I believe is offering value and in our Wave 3.

So is this something you are happy about?

$CFLT - RC -

$CLFT is in a descending channel right now but has held exactly on its 0.5 Fib at $25.

Bulls need to get back above the important moving averages at $28.50 in order to see an attempt made at the channel breakout level at $29.50.

A breakout here and the target level remains at point C at $41.

$NOW - RC -

$NOW is at a difficult junction right now.

It failed to make a new high and rejected heavy at our Wave B level and pulling back now, I believe that if the blue line at $703 is not held, then the price can continue down lower to our Wave C level at the 0.5 Fib at $577.

Holding above the blue line which is also the 200 Day MA, it still have one more chance to make a higher high and run to our Wave 5 target at $900.

$BMY - RC - DIVIDEND OF 5.83%

This is a very long term projection and I believe $BMY is on the verge of completing its ABC correction as it tests its 0.618 Fib now at $41.

I have looked at the fundamentals here too and they are attractive but needs to improve on their margins, which I believe they can do.

This is solid long term hold company if the price can hold at this level here at $41.
It is in a similar position to $PFE so weigh up both options equally, both have the same dividend payment too.

$INTC TOP 20

$INTC is directly benefiting from the Semi Sell off, particularly in $NVDA, $TSM, $SMCI and $AMD.

$INTC had not been following these companies higher over the last few months and declined rapidly.

Market is realising that in terms of risk v reward, $INTC is looking good here.

Looks like we are in Wave 5 now, with the target at the 200 Day MA.