The Long Investor

$PFE - WATCHLIST -

$PFE is sitting on its 200 Day MA, which is just below the 0.618 Fib.

This is where bulls need to step in and react on this support level to move this higher.

$PFE received some positive Phase 3 news yesterday that one of their respiratory drugs has given a significant immunity response...but I don't see this news showing any reaction yesterday when it released, this may come this week.

Impulse wave continues as shown

Getting below the 200 Day MA would show weakness fo...

$NIO TOP 20

$NIO is hovering over the previous support level on the red line at $3.61, testing this level last week, which was also a low in Mid April too.

Still in this channel and still below all moving averages.....Earnings is not expected until the 3rd week of Sept so we need a catalyst before then to make an impact here.

RSI is at 30 now, so it is in oversold territory, as that is clear from the price being at its 4 year low.

Onvo release may be the lifeline that can turn this arou...

$DELL

Another Semi company that has held its 0.618 Fib, along with $AMD and $SMCI and had a strong day yesterday and it looks like there is some continuation in the PM today too.

RSI is still not at 30 yet, it is sitting at 29....after getting as low as 20 last week, so once support held, a bounce has been coming.

The price action can move up to its 200 Day MA which is at its 0.5 Fib now at $106 and here it will be met with a test, converting this level to support and a reversal is on h...

TWEET: FWD PE of Sector Leaders

$GM: 4

$DAL: 5

$WBA: 5

$BMY: 6

$BABA: 8

2024-08-12 19:49:43 +0000 UTC View Post

$AMD TOP 20

I have added today because we have a test and hold of support above the 0.618 Fib and a higher high and higher low, we also tested the red line which is a potential support line too.

I could see that the Semi companies were starting to move in the PM too and since they are heavily correlated right now, they are likely dragging each other up, after all testing and holding on their 0.618 Fib.

I already have a position in $AMD so adding here compliments my average and I am not agains...

US OIL

It is getting very tight in this wedge now as we await to see of Iran will counter again on Israels actions in the region.

Price is just sitting on the 50 and 200 Day MA now at the top line of the wedge.

An escalation in the middle east should in theory cause Oil to rise but we have experienced a lot of conflict in the region and in Ukraine/Russia this year and the price has been relatively flat and contained in this wedge.....a breakout and hold above $80 and this could run.

$CL - SAFE HAVEN -

Colgate the long historical safe haven has just been wrapping itself around our trajectory since it broke above the blue line at $86 and is testing the First Target from above now at $100.

Converting this target to support and we have our base before moving higher to test the Second Target at $115.

A very reliable and steadfast safe haven this has been.

Dividend of +2% too, giving this an impressive gain for 2024.

$EL

We can add $EL to the list of market leaders that have been extremely beaten up, as I mentioned in an update earlier today.

$EL has lost all of its Fib support levels on its crazy descent down from $374 to $86 right now.

Price is at its 2017 low and FWD PE is still at 21, so just slightly overvalued now which is incredible to say.

I will be watching for a test of the 2016 low at $75 on the blue line for support.

Same price as $NKE, $SBUX and $DIS....

$JBLU

Is down -21% today after they announced a $400 million public offering to effectively free up cash.

Market does not like this as it is a concern and reacted accordingly

Price hit $7.30 post earnings at the end of July and is now sitting at $4.74, desperate to find support and fighting to get back above the 0.618 Fib at $5.

We can see that the 50 and 200 Day MA is lost and a lot of resistance below the blue support line at $6.16, which was a support line from 2022 - 2023

$PLUG - RC -

$PLUG was in a long descending wedge since 2021 and managed to break out in late 2023 but after consistently missing on earnings since August 2020, the price has moved sideways in a consolidated range.

$PLUG is under severe pressure right now to turn this around and time is running out.

A break below $1 and the exchange will notify $PLUG of their requirements to stay above $1 and a break below the all time low level at $0.79 and I do not think $PLUG will survive.

$PLUG will...

$PDD

No changes to the chart here but it is worth bringing this back to your attention again because of its bullish set up and $BABA and $JD report this week.

Earnings date has still not been reported for $PDD but I suspect it will be released over the next 2 weeks in August.

Price is back above its 50 and 200 Day MA now and pushing to make a higher high next

A strong showing this week from $BABA and $JD could also bring the Chinese sector higher

$SMCI

$SMCI up +9% today to nobodies surprise in this group, bounced perfectly on the 0.618 Fib at $489 and now at $557 today and still significantly below its 200 Day MA at $678.

$SMCI, $AMD and $DELL have all been holding on their 0.618 Fib now and have bounced so far

This is also why we added $AMD today too.

So we want to see a series of higher highs and higher lows next and a drift up to the 200 Day MA next to show signs of a reversal.

$RIVN - RC -

$RIVN is at an important junction now

Pull back has already come down to the 0.618 fib at $12 now and the price is just squished in between the 50, the 200 Day MA and the 0.5 Fib, at a very strong confluence level at $14.

I suspect a strong move to come next....bulls will obviously want a break to the upside and get back above the bull case at $15.76

A retest of the 0.618 Fib is possible to if there is a break down.

$JD

Earnings report is out on Weds, which is one day ahead of $BABAs report.

Price action has not been performing as well as $BABA tho as it leads into its earnings release.

Price is still below its 50 and 200 Day MA but managed to hold support on its 0.78 Fib.

$JD I believe is undervalued but I would prefer $BABA or $BIDU because their margins are stronger

A positive report this week should help $JD get back above its 50 and 200 Day MA and possibly make an attempt at its...

$LUV

Another legacy company, which has been a market leader in its sector for decades now too, also down to its 0.887 Fib, its last remaining support level. Its COVID low level is at $22 too.

Significantly below its 50 and 200 Day MA as well.

The travel sector has not been performing well over the last few weeks due to weak consumer sentiment

But as a long term hold, there are bargains on sale here.

$LUV holding above $22 is one of them.

$ONON

Earnings out tomorrow before the market opens.

Price has been moving well leading up to earnings without putting in any parabolic moves which is a good sign.

In the PM now, the price is back above its 50 Day MA and the First Target support line at $40.

Holding above this line and another positive earnings report and this could get a strong move up to our Wave 5 target over the next 2-3 months.

$V TOP 20

$V has still managed to hold above its blue support line and showing some strength now as it moves sideways but we have not seen a higher high yet, however we do have a higher low.

RSI is not giving us any valid information that a reversal is on here now, except that there is mixed feelings here.

One on hand, $V will be affected by a downturn in the economy with less transactions, while on the other hand, $V is offering value here below its 200 Day MA and has fantastic fundamental...

Beaten Down Market Leaders to consider as a Long Term Hold

If you did nothing else for the next 3-5 years and just bought these companies in their Buy Zones, I would expect you to beat the market.

The issue with companies that have been beaten up is that nobody wants to go near them

These are market leaders, with some being around for decades, you need to make a decision, are they worth buying now and can you hold for years to see their true return.

Plenty of options here

$SBUX
P...

$SBUX

I am seeing too much resistance under the 0.618 Fib at $79 and the 50 Day MA to expect any reversal here just yet, I think it is more likely that a test of the 2022 low at the blue line at $68 is possible before consolidation and moving higher.

I believe $SBUX is in the same category as $DIS, $NKE and $INTC, it is a market leader and will turn around but needs to start showing strength

I would certainly consider adding in the Buy Zone below $68

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

A noticeable change in direction now for Silver, after finding support above its 200 Day MA and its 0.618 Fib, which were at the same level at $26.

RSI is showing a hold above the 30 level and the MACD is also showing that sellers are now exhausted and it is starting to curl up after dropping excessively, meaning this is back into value territory again

I added Silver again last week and set forward my reasons for doing so

I would like to see a drift up to the 50 Day MA ...

$SPY TOP 20

$SPY has also formed a bear flag since its large sell off on Monday.

The formation of this bear flag is not a surprise considering the economic data that is out this week:

Tues: PPI

Weds: CPI

Thurs: Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. NY FED Manufacturing Index. PHILLY FED Manufacturing Index

Friday: Housing Starts and Consumer Sentiment.

On top of this, we have a number of important earnings releases, although not at the same level as the last 2 weeks.

A s...

$BABA TOP 20

I added this commentary 2 days ago but it is worth reading this again:

So big picture here:

• Large Wedge breakout in April

• Followed by a second wedge in August

• Followed by a second wedge breakout in August

• Making higher lows since the low in Jan '24

• Above the 50 and 200 Day MA now

• Above the red resistance line

• Making a higher high now

• Moving in an impulse count

<...
2024-08-11 19:04:32 +0000 UTC View Post

$QQQ TOP 20

A bear flag has formed since bouncing on the 200 Day MA, so it will be interesting to see how the $QQQ performs this week as important economic data comes in, such as PPI and CPI.

Both of these prints will influence the market and the big one we are waiting for is $NVDA's earnings on the 28th of August, all of the regular Semi companies we upload have been destroyed post earnings and if $NVDA misses (which I don't expect them to) or gives a less than average guide then this may put more...

$TSLA TOP 20

$TSLA is below its 50 and 200 Day MA and tested its 200 Day MA from below this week already.

A relief bounce can come here too, back up to the 50 Day MA and even the wedge top line again but a rejection at the 50 Day MA at $212 or the wedge top line at $220 and we can expect this to move down further to the Wave 5 target, which will be staying at the wedge bottom line.

Impulse count is invalid so the trend is not in favour of the bulls right now, in the short term.

$SHOP TOP 20

Plan remains the same here as the one we shared during the week, we expected a bounce up to the 200 Day MA and added in the white fib levels to reflect this.

Price action is already quite close to this level now, so I will be watching for a pull back next.

We can also see that the 50 Day MA is at the wedge trend line support at $62 too, which is just at the 0.38 Fib, this is also a level of interest to me.

So support held between $56 - $62 and we should add again.

$PYPL TOP 20

Strong finish to the week after recapturing the 50 and 200 Day MA's after Mondays sell off and back to test the ascending triangle bottom line again.

We know that the big test will be getting back to $68 and converting this level to support, this has not be done since the consolidation started in November '23.

Holding above this level and we have another buy signal and confirmation that we are in the Bull Case and in Wave 3, so $68 is very important to us.

$PLTR TOP 20

$PLTR had a fantastic week and is a perfect example of why you should buy positions and hold them when they are not in the same wave count as the market.

We have $PLTR in Wave 3 and it hit a new 52 week high this week and its highest position since 2021.

Finished the week above $29.30 which is the important support line that needs to be flipped, so we want to see a test and hold above this level to confirm that the level has been converted, it is a very important resistance/suppor...

$SE TOP 20

Very nice recovery and bounce on the 0.5 Fib at $55 and back up to $64 now, very similar bounce to that of $SHOP.

H&S looks complete now but will need to get back above the green line at $67 and then convert the 50 Day MA to support to say that the worst is behind $SE.

A rejection at either level and the price can move back down to its 0.5 Fib or 200 Day MA again.

$NKE TOP 20

$NKE, exactly in the same category as $INTC and $DIS, old market leaders that have been beaten up but will have no issue recovering and are excellent long term holds at these levels.

Price is exactly at its 0.887 Fib now too at $74 and has been slowly building strength since its earnings.

The doomsday scenario here is a flush down to the 2020 low at $60 and this would be the easiest no brainer buy that we cover.

$MSFT TOP 20

Another chart testing an important level, price finished exactly at the 200 Day MA to finish the week and I put $MSFT in the same camp as $AMZN, a flip of the $406 level to support and Wave A is complete and I will be watching for a bounce to the 50 Day MA next to $435 for Wave B.

Do not expect this to happen in one week, I am expecting Wave B to complete around election time, so a slow drift up here and in the market is possible.

$AMZN is my pick but $MSFT bulls may treat $MSFT t...