The Long Investor

$XLV - SAFE HAVEN -

Healthcare should be remained as the safe haven sector.

It's been very healthy this year and has diverged considerably from the market and tech stocks.

This chart has not changed but it is worth considering this set up, with the week we have in front of us.

A retest of the 50 Day MA or the ascending triangle breakout level would be welcomed here at $151 and $148 but I can see the price action moving up to the First Target at $180 over the next 12 months, after consolida...

$WBA - RC -

This is truly horrific from $WBA, losing the last Fib support level at $10.67 now and continues to look week

This is while having a dividend of 10.8%, desperate measure to try and stop the selling.

This is not a stock I could recommend in this position right now but will be interesting to see if the bleeding can stop and consolidate sideways

$TTD - RC - WATCHLIST -

I was asked about $TTD last week and there is no changes to this chart since the start of May.

Price has broken out of the ascending triangle and using the 50 Day MA to propel higher

Price is moving very well to our blue line at $114 next.

A break above this level and the bulls should feel confident about completing Wave 3 higher in the next 6-8 months.

Breaking above $114 will also mean a new ATH.

$SQ

$SQ is also offering a double hold here too on the 0.618 Fib, I have uploaded a number of these set ups today too.

Price is still below its 50 and 200 Day MA now so this is not without risk while under both of these moving averages

But if $SQ can get back above the 200 Day MA at $69 then it can make a move up to the top trend line again at $78.

Holders here should certainly consider sticking with this.

$PSO - WATCHLIST -

I need to bring this back to your attention as it is moving incredibly strong and has broken out of this ascending triangle and gone above the inverse head and shoulders neckline at $13.20.

Wave 3 target has not changed at the Second Target at $18.70, with Wave 5 at $22.

2.1% dividend payments here too

$TGT

This might be a slight bit early but I have added in the 1.618 extension here too, so far we have a double 0.618 Fib hold here too

Like I've said a few times, we are seeing this set up on a lot of charts right now.

Price is just above the 200 Day MA now at $152 and for me, $TGT must be considered on the cusp of being a safe haven stock

It meets the criteria and has a solid 2.96% dividend and the only reason I am not labeling it as such is because of the negative sentiment ar...

$CL - SAFE HAVEN -

Don't ask me why $CL is using our yellow poll as a way to move higher along our trajectory but I love to see it.

There is still another 10% available here to the Second Target at $116 and if there is a pull back to the 50 Day MA at the First Target at $101 and holds, then this is worth of a consideration.

Another fantastic buy for our members when this broke out in April at $86.

1.9% Dividend too.

$COPX - SAFE HAVEN -

It is Fed Pivot week so it seems only appropriate to share as many safe haven and defensive stocks with the group to be reminded of their set up.

$COPX has not performed as strong as Gold and Silver but the set up is still very much bullish

Price could not hold above the yellow line at $47 so pulled back in a controlled manner and the price is in between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels but crucially holding above the bottom line of the ascending triangle, which it has held since the Co...

$BTI - SAFE HAVEN -

$BTI being one of the best defensive stocks of the year was probably not on many people's bingo card but this chart has not changed in over a year for us

We didn't need it to move in an impulse wave, we were happy to see it consolidate between the blue lines between $27 and $47 and still offer substantial gains, massively beating the market and a 7.5% dividend...truly incredible.

I would not be chasing here at this position, this potential Wave 3 is looking extended, a pull back t...

HSI

HSI is still sitting above the 200 Day MA and the 0.618 Fib and we can see that the 50 Day MA is moving lower slowly by day.

The price action is just sitting between the 50 and 200 Day MA's as they squeeze together and this is normally associated with a strong move

We want this move to be to the upside and break above from the 200 Day MA but we can't rule out a break down below the 200 Day MA right now.

But so far, we have a double 0.618 Fib hold....which has worked very wel...

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

Silver is enjoying itself out there, after the ECB rate cut last week causing a bounce out of the wedge and above $30 and now a further continuation this week on the increased expectation that the Fed will cut by 0.5% now, Silver is showing a very nice set up this week.

I have added in the 1.618 Fib, as always when we get a pull back to the 0.618 Fib here at $27.8, to show where this bounce can run to and it is not a surprise to see the 1.618 Fib aligned with our First Target at $33.70<...

$QQQ

I added a long commentary to the $SPY chart so I have added in the Economic Calendar here for the week ahead.

I think we all know the significance of the FOMC meeting on the 17th and 18th, the market has been waiting for a Fed Pivot for 2 years now.

$QQQ chart, which is remarkably similar to the $NVDA chart and is still in its wedge and tested the upper limits to finish the week

Wave B can still go as high as the previous ATH at $503 but I have situated it at the amber 0.78 ...

$SPY TOP 20

$SPY had its best week of 2024 this week after finding support on the 0.5 Fib and firmly using the 0.38 fib at $543 to consolidate, this would be typical of a subwave 4 movement, which would align with $SPY complete Wave 5 in normal conditions at our Wave 45 target at $589.

Making a new ATH and holding above this level may cause euphoria and this is normally associated with people chasing the market, believing that this is a new bull run and this would cause a melt up scenario, which I ...

$V TOP 20

$V is bursting higher through all Fib levels here which is a indication that the market feels that consumer spending will continue, at least for the next few months very positively.

The 50 Day MA is starting to move up to the 200 Day MA shortly too, so we may see a golden cross this week.

Those who have not added here already should wait for a pull back here, we are likely still in Wave 3, I need to wait for a pull back to add the impulse count as the price has run so aggressively...

$TSLA TOP 20

I have also added the weekly chart here because I think it is important to see the significance of the 200 WMA

It has been a very important resistance/support line since the start of 2023

Price has been moving either side of this MA without any clear direction

Price is still below the 200 WMA and we know that this is an undervalued position below the 200 WMA.

Right now the level is at $235, the price action is showing promise outside of the wedge now but a flip of $235...

$SHOP TOP 20

I have added the weekly chart here to show where the 200 WMA is.

So far $SHOP has only pulled back to the 0.38 Fib at $66.10, which we know is the Wave 4 support level, we would like to see $SHOP reject before making a higher high and come down to complete a lower low, into the buy zone or on the yellow trend line to add.

If a higher high is made next then we are only in Wave 5 now and I still expect a test of the 200 WMA at $79 before an ABC pull back.

We need more price ac...

$PYPL TOP 20

Wave 4 could be complete here after testing and holding on the 0.38 Fib at $67.77, which was also the previous resistance level since the start of 2024, so we could be looking at a clean flip from resistance to support here.

A break and hold above the last resistance line at $71 and I think this can move higher next to complete Wave 5 at $85 over the next few months

Lower interest rates and the US 10YR falling could help fuel this rise, at least in the short term.

$PLTR TOP 20

$PLTR showed enormous strength this week and any small dips coming in were immediately bought up and when CEO Karp went on CNBC, he rejuvenated the stock further, he speaks about the Retail Investor changing the game for $PLTR and they are buying this at every opportunity.

This is not how I invest, retail investors can buy aimlessly in a bull trend but the moment the bear trend comes, they traditionally show weak hands and sell excessively, especially if they are sitting on strong profi...

$NKE TOP 20

$NKE finished the week testing the 50 Day MA in between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib, making this a confluence level.

We will be looking for signs of a reversal here and just like $DIS, if there is a reversal next, the 200 Day MA at $94 would be the next target for Wave 3.

$NKE is also in the Buy Zone too, so there is value on the table here and it is a sector leader for decades, a buy and hold strategy here would make a lot of sense.

$MSFT TOP 20

$MSFT moved with the other Mega Caps this week and burst through its 200 Day MA, still in our potential Wave B too, after holding support on its green Fib support level at $401 perfectly.

I have Wave B in between the amber 0.618 - 0.78 Fib levels but as with the other Mega Caps, it can have no issue going right back up to its previous ATH.

A break above $470 would put $MSFT in the same situation as the others too and melt up, any rejection from here and $470 and we are looking at ...

$INTC TOP 20

$INTC received a $3.5 Billion contract from the DOJ on Friday which may act as a catalysts for $INTC now that it is testing its last Fib support on the 0.887 Fib at $18.50

I think the market still needs to know what will happen with $INTC in terms of selling off some departments to free up value

Overall this is in the Buy Zone now and not without risks, bottom is not confirmed complete yet either.

But as a long term hold, I think $INTC is very attractive here but you need to...

$DIS TOP 20

I highlighted the 0.618 Fib hold at $85 this week so I have added in the green 1.618 fib at $99 and the 2 Fib at $102, where the 200 Day MA is conveniently sitting in between right now.

The 50 Day MA is just above the price action right now at $91, so a break and hold above this level and $DIS can break out of this red channel and show a movement in an impulse wave up to $99 for Wave 3.

$AAPL TOP 20

I still don't believe that this potential Wave B bounce is complete and I think $AAPL, $AMZN and $GOOG will all move in sync next, $AMZN is already testing its $188 level now but could go back up to its previous ATH level too.

I think with this formation here with $AAPL, that a test of the blue line at $237 is possible here and a breakout and hold above this level and we are looking at euphoria and the Melt Up level is becoming a real possibility

Any rejection at the previous high...

$PYPL TOP 20

Very straightforward here too

A pull back to the 0.38 Fib at $67 and held support, followed by a bounce.

If there is a second test of the 0.38 Fib at $67 and it holds then you have your buy signal to add to catch Wave 5 up to $85.

I am happy with my $PYPL position and did not add this week but if we get another retest of $67 or even lower at the 0.5 Fib at $65, then I would consider adding.

$GOOG TOP 20

The plan was very simple here, to buy $GOOG for a bounce for Wave B, like we did with $AMZN.....and if the price action goes beyond our Wave B level and tests its previous ATH at $193, then we stay in until there is a rejection.

This has benefited us with $AMZN and now $GOOG

I said before that in both scenarios, bull or bear case, that the price will need to bounce, so being in this oversold position helped us make the decision to buy once $151 held.

So price is just at the ...

$BABA TOP 20

$BABA has been barriaged with a number of negative catalysts lately but still manages to maintain its structure and stay in this Wave 3.

The latest is Bidens political game of implementing tariffs on Chinese goods, $BABA sells to the global system and this would be a fine line for Biden to take, considering China could retaliate with something that could hurt US companies next.

Price action pulled back on Friday from this news but not enough to test the breakout level yet $83.

$ABNB TOP 20

I added the $ABNB chart on Friday to highlight the breakout level at $119

I have provisionally added in the green 1.618 Fib here too, like on the $AMD chart to show you where the price can bounce to if this breaks above the $119 level and holds.

We can also see that the 50 Day MA is moving down to the 1.618 Fib to at $127, making this a confluence level.

I do like $ABNB as everyone here knows, so holding above $119 is attractive to me to add.

$AMD TOP 20

I think everyone that added again with us at $135 are very happy right now

Especially those who have been holding with us since $98 last year.

Price managed to get above the 50 Day MA to finish the week and the next test will be the 200 Day MA at $160 and then the blue line at $164.

A hold above these levels and the bulls should be happy

We have a double hold here on the 0.618 Fibs so I have provisionally added the green 1.618 Fib at $197 to show where this next bounce...

$AMZN TOP 20

$AMZN made its way back up to its $188 level, a few days before the Fed make their announcement to Rate Cut on the 17th - 18th, likely the Weds the 18th.

No need to do anything right now, the price kissed the $188 level and stopped here, finishing the week at $186, all round a very bullish week for the market and the Mega Caps.

I am holding my position with no intention to sell unless we see a clear rejection and losing the 50 Day MA which is below $180

We added at $160 to e...

$NIO TOP 20 - LESSON - WAVE 4 VARIATIONS -

I think this is a good opportunity to make a lesson here.

We are all watching $NIO very closely in this group and our members are fully aware that we want to see an impulse wave to confirm that we are starting to see a reversal here and the worst is behind $NIO

So while I have your attention, I think it's a good opportunity to look at how Wave 4's can form.

The standard Wave 4, pulls back in 3 waves abc, where wave c typically makes a lower low below wave a and completes on...