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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-19-22 15:00 PDT - Russian Military is in Trouble

If the latest Pentagon assessment is correct, Russian ground forces in Ukraine are in serious trouble. Today, a defense official reported that Russia had lost 25% of its combat power assigned to Ukraine since the invasion started on February 24.

Combat power is not measured simply by counting soldiers, tanks, artillery pieces, and other equipment. Military hardware, air dominance and superiority, and highly trained soldiers such as Spetsnaz are force multipliers. Conversely, forced cons...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-19-22 11:45 PDT - Mariupol

The Russian Air Force is using Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 bombers to strike the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant.

The Tu-22M3 can carry up to 8 1500kg bombs in its main payload bay. The Russian "Father of All Bombs" FOAB is shrouded in mystery and questions whether a Tu-95 [correction] Bear bomber can deliver it.

People reported hearing the bombing in Mariupol from 60 miles away. The Azovstal factory is also shrouded in mystery and a lot of misinformation. A bunker network was built under the ...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-18-22 22:00 PDT - Public Preview

As a thank you to those who supported us on Monday, April 18 with our TikTok situation, and through the kind permission of our generous Patreons, we will make the SITREP publicly available through April 23. 

The SITREP is the foundation of our updates on TikTok and contains additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions and content moderation.

Malcontent News creates one SITREP a day.

Thank you for supporting independent journalism, a...

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How to Let TikTok Know You're Unhappy

If you click this link:

https://e-mailer.link/100181028971 

It will provide you with e-mail addresses and a prepared message to send to TikTok.

We are talking directly with legal and going through the steps - we have no insight or prognosis on when a decision will be made or the outcome. 

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Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report for April 17, 2022 - Public Version

Due to the ongoing situation with our social media channel TikTok, we asked our Patreons in a quick survey if they would approve of making the reports public for a maximum of 21 days while we work with TikTok and evaluate options.

The survey ran for 90 minutes, with a 22% response rate with 92% in favor of making the content public, 7% with no opinion or other opinion, and 1% not in favor.

We are making the April 17, 2022 Situation Report public based on that feedback. We will do...

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Temporarily Making SITREP Public During TikTok Black Out

Good Monday morning! We woke this AM to find that we're permabanned on TikTok, how is your day going?

Clearly, this was part of a coordinated bot attack. We've reached out to TikTok legal, and because they are secretive in their operations I won't say more - it won't help the process.

Here is our question for our paying Patreons. While this is ongoing and getting sorted out, will you accept the daily situation report being made public, so we can continue to communicate what is hap...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-17-22 23:45 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The SITREP is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

Malcontent News creates one SITREP a day.

Thank you for supporting independent journalism, and for being a Malcontent.

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-16-22 23:45 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The SITREP is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

Malcontent News creates one SITREP a day.

Thank you for supporting independent journalism, and for being a Malcontent.

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We Shouldn't Get Involved, Otherwise it will Start World War III

Editorial by David Obelcz 

I'm sure you've seen this talking point if you've spent any time on social media. Increasingly, if you review the commenters of this narrative, they appear to be bots, paid disinformation farms, or consumers of disinformation. This is not a total dismissal, there are legitimate voices in support of an isolationist viewpoint.

Noam Chomsky created a firestorm today with his published views on Ukraine. His position could be summarized as Zelen...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-15-22 12:00 PDT: Moskva Update 3

We're making this publicly available due to serious questions on the status of the crew of the Moskva. Additionally, we are attaching our April 12 Situation Report for your review. For those considering becoming supporters of our team, we hope this peek into what we provide will aid in making a decision.

There are growing questions on the fate of the crew of the Moskva. There are three versions of what happened and when.

ASSESSMENT:

Based on publicl...

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Housekeeping - No SITREP For 4/15/22

One of the best aspects of being an independent journalist is within the confines of our channels, I can be transparent and authentic. In a corporate media setting breaking the "fourth frame," or becoming real, is generally discouraged. It can also be career ending.

So I'm going to be authentic for a bit.

I'm not very religious - I've had a couple of moments in my life where religion and faith has bubbled up to a higher level.

I'm a Jewish kid raised Episcopalian who went to...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-14-22 21:45 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The SITREP is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

Malcontent News creates one SITREP a day.

Thank you for supporting independent journalism, and for being a Malcontent.

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-14-22 13:45 PDT: Moskva Update 2

The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the Moskva rolled on its side and sunk in "stormy seas."

The statement reported the warship was being towed and had reached the port, and then capsized.


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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-14-22 09:15 PDT: Moskva Update

In today's episode of "The Fog of War, Choose Your Own Adventure," let's count all the stories on the Moskva and the Kremlin's changing position.

What We Know with Confidence

The Moskva had an incident that resulted in a fire, explosion, and the crew abandoned the ship. All communications and the transponder stopped on the vessel. The warship is no longer operational and has no value as a military asset.

What We're Hearing

Missile ...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-13-22 23:45 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The SITREP is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

Malcontent News creates one SITREP a day.

Thank you for supporting independent journalism, and for being a Malcontent.

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Updated: Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-13-22 17:15 PDT: Black Sea Fleet Flagship Incident

UPDATE: The Moskva rolled on its side and sank on April 14, 2022, at approximately 02:50 local time. There is no information on the number of casualties or crew members lost.

About five hours ago, open source intelligence started reporting a major increase in coded radio traffic among the Black Sea Fleet. Roughly 30 minutes later, Head of the Odesa Regional Defense and Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych, reported that Ukraine has attacked the Moskva with land-to-sea Neptu...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-13-22 09:30 PDT: Mobile Crematoriums?

We haven't discussed the accusations that mobile crematoriums are being used in Mariupol to hide war crimes because we've been researching the accusation.

Before the war started, still images and videos circulated, accusing Russia of staging the equipment. The theory? The mobile crematorium would be used to hide the number of soldiers killed.

That claim was rooted in some fact (as is all good disinformation). The pictures and videos used, including by journalists and editorial app...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-12-22 21:45 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The SITREP is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

We've added a summary map (the design is a draft, we're not happy with it) to the SITREP to provide a better visualization on where activi...

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Special Assessment: Putin Will Use Nukes Redline Fallacy

As multiple agencies investigate the potential April 11 chemical weapons attack in Mariupol, the wails of NATO must get involved echoed across the virtual hallways of the commentariat. The talking point from pro-Russian accounts has been less about denial and more, "it's not our business, and if NATO/United States gets involved, Putin will just use nukes."

This argument is a red herring because it ignores fundamental physics, the impact of nuclear weapons, and simple meteorology.

...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-11-22 23:00 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The SITREP is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

Based on reader feedback we've made some improvements. We have added a table of contents that is linked to each section, enabling easier n...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-11-22 12:45 PDT

There are multiple reports from Ukrainian government officials, The Mariupol City Council, and military leaders, that chemical weapons have been deployed in Mariupol by Russian forces within the last hour.

There are reports of civilian and military casualties, with symptoms aligning with the deployment of Sarin or VX gas.

It is important to stress that we are treating this as unconfirmed. The reports are growing rapidly and coming from increasingly trustworthy sou...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-11-22 11:00 PDT

DNR Spokesperson Eduard Bausrin, former commander of the DNR Kalmius Battalion, stated on Telegram that Russian forces intend to use chemical weapons in Mariupol. Specifically at the Avozstal Metallurgical Factory.

Unian Information Agency 

His statement was reinforced by Rus...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-11-22 9:30 PDT

In our assessment, the reports on Sunday that the Ukrainian military forces in Mariupol have been bisected were overstated.

In the last 24 hours, there was fighting in the city's center, significantly east of where fighting was concentrated in the previous three days. There continues to be armor vs. armor fighting, and Ukrainian forces can direct artillery using drones.

The Chechen TikTok video crew appears to have moved to the Donbas.

This weekend, several videos and pictur...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-10-22 19:15 PDT

Due to the continued operational pause, there hasn't been any material change in Ukraine over the last 24 hours.

Heavy fighting continues in Mariupol and Ukrainian resistance appears to be cracking is the biggest story in the last 24 hours. The latest map from the British Ministry of Defense shows all territory west of Kherson (city) in dispute, aligning with what we've observed over the last 72 hours.

Russian forces are concentrating most of their firepower on civilians and civil...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-9-22 20:15 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The report is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

Malcontent News creates one to two SITREP reports a day, based on operational tempo in theater, and world events.

Thank you for su...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-8-22 20:45 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The report is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

Malcontent News creates one to two SITREP reports a day, based on operational tempo in theater, and world events.

Thank you for su...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report: 4-8-22 12:00 PDT

On April 8 during daylight hours, a Tochka-U SRBM armed with cluster munitions made a direct hit on the train station in Kramatorsk, Ukraine in the Donetsk Oblast. The train station was filled with thousands of civilians, attempting to evacuate from the Slovyansk region in anticipation of a major Russian offensive.

Last night, Russian forces bombed an overpass in Barvinkove, stopping rail traffic for six hours. It also disabled one of the main road routes out of Slovyansk. During the su...

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 4-7-22 23:00 PDT

Patreons at Bronze Level or high now have access to our Situational Report [SITREP] for Russia and Ukraine, with annotation and links to supporting source(s).

The report is the foundation of our updates on TikTok, and at times will contain additional information that was not shared in our videos due to time restrictions or a need to be concise.

Malcontent News creates one to two SITREP reports a day, based on operational tempo in theater, and world events.

Thank you for su...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report: 4-7-22 13:00 PDT

Drone video released today shows a Ukrainian BTR-4 engaging two Russian tanks, likely older T-64 (upgraded) or T-72 models in the southwest suburbs of Mariupol.

The  BTR-4 destroys both tanks, and this video reveals a lot of information on the broader situations in the encircled city.

NASA FIRMS has been indicating heavy fighting in the southwest region of Mariupol, west of the port. This area was believed to be firmly under Russian control. This engagement shows that it is d...

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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report: 4-7-22 12:15 PDT

United Nations Human Rights Council

The United Nations voted to remove Russia from the Human Rights Council, 93 to 24. Shortly after the vote, Russia quit the council.

United States to Suspend Normal Trade Relations with the Russian Federation

The United States Senate unanimously voted to suspend normal trade relations with Russia. The measure already passed the House, so it will move to President Joe Biden's desk.

United ...

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