Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 03JAN24 16:40 PST - Winter is Coming

EDIT: Year corrected to 2024.

We know a lot of readers skim/skip the weather section in the SITREPs, but the forecast models deserve special attention.

My journey into journalism started in 2015, and the name Malcontent News was originally Malcontentment Tango in 2016 as a bit of a joke. This all started with weather forecasts and meteorology and, in 2019, became news. I've always been a weather nerd, and I was born a decade too soon. Had I been born ten years later, it is almost certain I would have pursued a career in meteorology, as all the theoretical math that was done on paper had moved to computer programming. I speak robot race rather well.

A lesson I learned in 2022 from people smarter than me. After 8,000-plus years of documented human conflict, weather still rules the battlefield. Technology can only do so much, and "all-weather capable," used by arms manufacturers around the world, is a bit of an exaggeration.

When I look at weather models (weather is my thing, so this is a team of one), anything past five days is throwing darts. Four to five days start to gel, and less than three days are very accurate - mostly. Tropical storms and winter weather forecasts are particularly challenging. For winter storms, snow accumulation is a big challenge. A shift in the center of circulation of only 75 kilometers, a storm system arriving 6 hours later or earlier, or the movement of other high and low-pressure systems in a forecast area can dramatically change where, when, how much, and if it is snow or rain.

It's five days out from January 8, and all of the models I can see are agreeing that there is a major weather event coming that will impact the entire line of conflict on January 8 and January 9 (throwing darts on the second day).

The models are tightly aligned on wind and cold. As the weather system moves through Ukraine, it will bring with it the coldest air we've seen since 2022. Parts of the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts will struggle to get to -20 C for highs, and it appears it will be even colder on January 9.

Along the line of conflict, high temperatures on January 8 will arrive at midnight, and then it will get steadily colder. By midday, it will be between -5 C and -15 C, with wind gusts between 40 and 50 kph. Splitting the difference (-10 C and 45 kph) will produce windchills of -21 C. It just gets colder from there.

Two models, the ICON and the ICON-EU, only project precipitation to January 7, so I don't have a full picture to do an ensemble analysis. The other models fell into agreement as I was writing this, showing a significant snow event on January 8 across most of Ukraine. The ECMWF model is showing a major ice storm event for parts of occupied Zaporizhzhia before a transition to snow.

What does this mean for the battlefield?

In 2023, during the two significant snow events that occurred, Russia launched large offensive operations just ahead of the storm systems. It was clear the strategy was to try and push Ukrainian forces back, seize new positions, and let the weather help consolidate the advance. Both attempts failed - miserably. In the case of January 2023 in the Kreminna and Svatove AOs, it appears the attack started too late, and it didn't help Russian forces that the snow arrived earlier and was more intense than forecasted.

It's too far out to say with authority that in the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna AOs, low temperatures could dip to -30 C, but the models are suggesting it. Cold weather injuries for both combatants are going to be a major problem in the coming week. Russian forces are far better equipped compared to last year, where weather this cold after snow would have been a catastrophe.

There will be a significant improvement in tractability, especially for tracked vehicles, once the ground freezes. But, at -30 C, even military hardware starts to need specialized lubricants, and diesel engines are not happy when it is that cold. We saw in March 2022, when winter lingered in Ukraine this caused significant problems for Russian military hardware. Last year, Chinese tires on Russian military vehicles were experiencing catastrophic failures at -10 and -15 C because the compound became too stiff.

With Ukraine mostly on the defensive, a major weather event of this nature will aid Ukrainian forces. For the most part, General Bezdorizhzhia and General Winter have aided Ukrainian forces since October.

We'll (I) will continue to monitor the weather situation. If the forecast holds, a large Russian push on January 7 in more than one AO, particularly northwest of Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka AO, would not surprise me. If the Russian General Staff has been anything, it has been consistent in using the same playbook over and over again.