UPDATED: Washington D.C. Flash Report 18JAN24 13:15 PST - Continuing Resolution Passes the Senate and What's Next

FACTS:

Update: The continuing resolution passed the House, 314 to 108. 106 Republicans and two Democrats voted against the CR. it moves to President Biden's desk.

The U.S. Senate has passed the Continuing Resolution that will fund the U.S. government through early March. The parts of the government that were supposed to shut down on January 20 will be funded until March 1, and the remainder, including the Department of Defense, will be funded through March 8. The Continuing Resolution holds the budget at 2023 levels, with a 1% cut in discretionary spending budgets for each department. It does not address sequestration, and a growing list of government projects and programs are increasingly delayed or being starved.

The motion will be moved to the House, which uses a procedure to fast-track the vote, which requires a 2/3 majority. The resolution is widely expected to pass and has broad Democratic support.

I wish I were making this next part up. The House and Senate moved to rush the vote through because Congress will be out of session on Friday due to an expected snowstorm in Washington, D.C. Congress also took Monday off for a federal holiday after returning from their holiday break on January 8. That break started on December 15 for the House and December 21 for the Senate.

The Continuing Resolution is a clean bill that does not address U.S. immigration policy, military aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, or the Philippines, or humanitarian aid for Palestinians. Many Congressional leaders from both parties claim that a deal is very close for all of the above.

OPINION:

We've been hearing variations of "very close" since September to have talks break down.

ASSESSMENT:

European leaders appear to be waking up to the reality that they are facing an existential threat, and when Russia says that it has no borders, they mean it. While Slovakia changed who approves military exports and reopened the door for Ukrainian aid, it was a purely economic decision. Signals from Hungary are a combination of geopolitics and economics. On the other hand, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France are making it clear they are all in, and Italy did not go in the direction anyone expected. Scholz announcing that Germany would almost double its 2024 military aid commitment from 4 billion euros to over 7 billion after talking to U.S. President Joe Biden is one part exciting and one part concerning (see opinion above).

OPINION:

Poland is also reopening the door to additional military aid. In my opinion, the new administration has a valid point that they are carrying the most weight when it comes to economic, social, and policy impact by virtue of Ukraine being a direct neighbor. The new position that Europe needs to acknowledge this reality has significant merit.

BACK TO ASSESSMENT:

One way or another, the European Union has made it clear that Ukraine will commit 50 billion euros of aid approved by the end of February. France has committed to providing another 78 Caesar 155 mm self-propelled howitzers in 2024, and Ukraine will produce 72 2S22 Bohdana SPGs in the coming year. Since February 24, 2022, Ukraine has lost 269 SPGs, about 12 a month. Surprise! Between France and Ukraine production numbers are a 100% replacement rate for field losses. Anything else is additive. Ukraine is losing about 200 armored personnel carriers a year - 250 M1117 APCs previously committed are scheduled to arrive by the end of 2024. Anything else is additive.

Ukraine is also showing a stunning level of adaptation. Military officers we've talked to are very supportive of the air defense ambush theory in how Ukraine downed an A-50U AWACS and heavily damaged an Il-22M command and control aircraft. The theory is Ukraine integrated parts of the Patriot system with the S-300 air defense system using a technique adjacent to how the Serbs shot down an F-117A Nighthawk in 1999. A Patriot radar was activated just long enough to provide enough data for an S-300 missile to achieve an on-board radar lock on the A-50U and shut the system down. By the time the A-50U crew figured out what was going on, it was too late, and the Su-30 providing CAP and SEAD support had nothing to target.

Further on adaptation. You may have noticed that Ukrainian one-way drones now have an odd protrusion on the front with a circle on the end that almost looks like it was made out of a reformed wire coat hanger. In a sign of continued evolution, these are rudimentary targeting sights that are proving to be highly effective. Ukrainian drone operators are targeting a weak spot on the rear of the T-72 and, to a greater extent, the T-80 main battle tank, with devastating results. It's the Star Wars equivalent of hitting a small thermal exhaust port that's just two meters wide, striking a spot between the turret and hull. If it hits the right location, the hot gases of the explosion penetrate the hull, igniting the ammunition in the autoloader. Normally, an 82 mm mortar round fire conventionally striking the turret of a T-72 or T-80 would give the crew inside a bad headache.

While in the game of swords and shields, Russia will both adopt and adapt, Ukrainian engineers have shown the ability to see the big picture. This is to say, if there is a way to address this fatal design flaw, Ukrainian engineers have likely started addressing this on their own fleet of T-72, P-91, and T-80 tanks. Adopt will likely have minimal impact while adapting will eventually end this tactic.

OPINION AND ASSESSMENT:

I had someone ask me today, "Do you feel like the tide is starting to turn?"

It's an interesting question.

Do I feel like the tide is starting to turn?

Sort of.

There are two realities. First, Russian President Vladimir Putin is committed to becoming a quasi-Tzar (he doesn't come from the Tzarish bloodline) and to have his legacy be the restoration of the former borders of the Russian Imperial Empire. He wrote it down in his mini-Mein Kaumpf in 2011. The Kremlin does not care about battlefield losses.

Moscow will continue to send tens of thousands of its citizens and foreign fighters to their deaths every month. If it comes down to just numbers and nothing more, Ukraine and then the rest of Europe will have a major issue over the next decade. Based on the videos we review on a daily basis, many we don't publish, we are increasingly convinced that Kyiv's reported Russian casualty numbers are close to reality. Ukraine may have been killing 20,000 Russians a month at the start of 2023. The Kremlin increased replaces to 35,000. Ukraine is now killing 30,000 to 35,000 Russian soldiers a month. Incredibly, that isn't enough. What is more concerning is how quickly Russia's youth is embracing quasi-Stalinism and fascism. There is an entire generation being raised ready to die for the modern Tzar's ambition.

There is truth in Dmytry Medvedev's words - Russia will never stop unless it is stopped. To stop Russia, Europe, and its allies are going to have to get a lot more comfortable with the concept of breaking Russia's military. They are going to have to get a lot more comfortable with the idea that Mutual Assured Destruction as a deterrent is dead, and just because a nation is a nuclear power doesn't mean they'll go nuclear. Iran and Pakistan demonstrated that this week. President Putin doesn't need an excuse to commit to the use of nuclear weapons. He could wake up tomorrow, yell, "Blyat," and order their use. With the ongoing political purge, there will be a point that the only thing between their use and excuses is the unknown state of Russia's delivery systems and warheads.

Honestly, I don't understand why this isn't obviously clear to U.S. leaders like Jake Sullivan. The whole world is in the Mutually Assured Destruction Instability Paradox. Accept it. If Ukraine starts striking Russia, they're going to complain in the Security Council, they're going to rant on Russian state media, they're going to write strongly worded letters, Antonio Guterres will say how naughty Ukraine is, and Russia will continue to attack Ukraine.

The counter to this is Russia's military-industrial production is already struggling to match its needs, and the task will only get harder. Currently, Russia is losing heavy military equipment at a truly unsustainable rate. Even without sanctions, production cannot keep up with the loss of artillery, air defense, and armor. I disagree with the recent analysis that Russia has practically run out of tank hulls to refurbish. We believe that if the current rate of attritional losses continues, the Russian Federation Armed Forces is going to have a critical shortage of heavy military equipment in another 18 to 24 months. The available number of tank, IFV, APC, and SPG hulls has declined by 50 to 70 percent in two years. It bears repeating combatants that use VBIEDs do so because they are facing an asymmetrical threat and they are on the wrong side of the equation.

If the Russia-Ukraine War drags on into 2025, and on its current trajectory, there is no reason to believe it won't; Moscow is going to find it increasingly difficult to fight World War II style as it does today. Lots of light infantry supported by a lot of artillery and a lot of landmines. They will start to struggle with the artillery part of the equation, which guts the military reorganization of late 2022. We're seeing the impact of this in the Avdiivka AO when we compare it to the Soledar and Bakhmut offensives of a year ago - when Russia had a lot more artillery.

Belarus is tapped out and after decades of corruption has minimal production facilities. While we roast the dark potato prince himself, uncool Lando Calarrisan, and self-declared President Alexander Lukashenko, you have to hand to him. He got Russian troops off his soil, he has maintained his dictatorship of Belarus and kept his ground troops out of the war. He got a lot of undue credit for ending the Prigozhin Insurrection while playing PMC Wagner Group leadership for fools. Face it, the guy is smart, but Russia has raided everything it could for ammunition and hardware.

Iran's support has been critical for Russia to maintain its stand-off weapon capacity as its supply of missiles dwindled. But, Iran is the neighbor who starts their straight-piped diesel Ford F-350 pickup truck at 5 AM and lets it idle for 30 minutes. They play speed metal at 2 in the morning, and their friends leave beer cans in all the surrounding yards. How bad is it? Iran has land borders with seven nations.

Afghanistan: The Taliban and Iran have major political and religious issues, with Afghanistan low-key supporting terrorist organizations operating within Iran.

Armenia: No issues, but the way Iran is operating, they'll find a way.

Azerbaijan: Significant border tension with frequent posturing and troop movements. Azerbaijan isn't great to its neighbors either. However, they own a lifted Chevy K-3500 with a Durmax diesel, wouldn't be caught dead drinking anything other than Coors, and only sissies drive Fords - Found on Road Dead. If they find one more damn can of Busch beer on their lawn, it's on.

Iraq: There was a decade-long war, followed by mutual political interference and a melange of Iran-backed terror groups and militia operating in Iraq working non-stop to destabilize the government.

Pakistan: After firing missiles into Pakistan on Tuesday that killed two children along with a group of terrorists, Pakistan recalled its ambassador to Iran and will not let the Iranian ambassador reenter their country. Pakistan responded to the Iranian attack militarily with strikes of their own last night, killing members of the IRGC along with a group of terrorists. Diplomatically, this is worse than U.S.-Russian relations, and Pakistan is a nuclear-armed nation. Weirdly, no one in the West seems to care.

Turkey: In 2017, Turkey started building a border wall and other infrastructure to block illegal border crossings. There are additional issues with the PKK operating from the Quandil Mountains that straddle the Iraq-Iran border with Turkey. They have a complicated relationship.

Turkmenistan: No issues but give it time, Tehran will figure something out.

Currently, Iran has fired up all of their proxies in the Middle East, including in Israel, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Yemen, Oman, and Syria (and Iraq and Pakistan as mentioned above). If a larger conflict were to erupt with Pakistan, its military-industrial capacity would have to be redirected internally. The chance of a wider conflict between Iran and Pakistan is low, but it isn't zero, and it is certainly above 1%.

North Korea: The import of North Korean munitions into Russia has enabled artillery units to increase their capacity from 5,000 rounds a day to 10,000. The world should not lose sight that, almost two years ago, Russia was capable of firing 60,000 rounds a day. From February to September 2022, you can map the line of conflict just by using NASA FIRMS, which showed where uncontrolled fires were burning because of the massive number of artillery shells being used.

Does a 100% increase from summer 2023 make a difference? Absolutely. Russia can no longer use its military doctrine of 2,000 artillery shells per square kilometer per day for offensive operations as it did in 2022. Can the West, if it gets its act together, match that number? Absolutely. This goes back to Europe realizing for good and for bad, they cannot rely on the United States for continued continental defense.

If the U.S. Congress breaks the impasse, Russia is going to be in for a world of hurt by the end of 2024. First, there are the accelerating commitments from European allies and the theoretical return of U.S. military aid. Additionally, there is a massive amount of ammunition and hardware that was promised in 2023 that still hasn't been delivered.

In contrast, while Russia continues to break sanctions and its economy has been far more resilient than anyone, including Russian economists, expected, the walls are slowly closing in. Russia's commercial airline industry is falling apart, as their airlines warned would happen. There has been a return of Soviet-era lines for commodities in the last three months, including eggs, chicken, candy and sweets, and petrol.

Russia's access to the world banking industry is shrinking, and the Central Bank is running out of rabbits to pull out of its hat to manipulate the rouble. Russia's civil infrastructure is falling apart. At a more basic level, the return of early Soviet-era communal bonfires to keep from freezing to death has also returned, even in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The demographic crisis is accelerating, and Russia is in the middle of a reverse immigration crisis. The solution to plummeting immigration from the former southern republics has been recruiting migrant workers from Africa, Central America, the Caribbean, and Asia. Once the word spreads that a Russian passport equals a trip straight to the military commissariat, they'll stop coming, too.

Russian wage and purchasing power parity have grown mostly due to defense spending and hiding in the numbers is continued inflation. Russia also has a massive debt crisis, which Moscow is exploiting to feed more soldiers into the debt-to-zinc coffin pipeline.

If the economy were truly booming, Moscow would not be demanding for all sanctions to be lifted before even walking to the negotiating table. You wouldn't have Putin's office saying out loud that energy exports in 2023, Russia's economic lifeline, didn't provide one extra kopeck to GDP growth. Where is that growth coming from? Military spending.

As both a lifetime student and subject matter expert, one thing I learned in 2022 is that outside of major cities, the average Russian has never been to a McDonald's or had a Starbucks. They've never shopped at a large mall and went to a Gap Store. They don't own H&M clothing. The biggest ouch for a majority of everyday Russians in early 2022 was a brief interruption in the Coca-Cola supply chain that third-party imports have since addressed.

However, that changed in the summer of 2023, starting with significant inflation in food prices and domestic shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel. Look at how much energy Russian state media is dedicating to the issues of basic commodity supply chains and prices.

For example, Putin declared that eggs have become more expensive and scarce because wealth has increased, so more people are buying eggs. If you've ever been low-income or outright poor, eggs are cheap protein. Prices are up due to supply chain issues and price manipulation by Russian oligarchs. Russians wouldn't be standing in line for hours to buy eggs directly from wholesalers or expired eggs if they were flush with newfound wealth. If you have newfound wealth, you're upgrading to meat, not buying more eggs. Unless people are upgrading from beans.

As we reported yesterday, in Bashkortostan, the average household income is $409 a month. One egg costs around 20 cents - $2.00 for a package of ten (that's how they are typically sold), which is a 70% increase in 6 months. When you're living on $409 a month as a household, that's devastating. And the increase goes past eggs.

Do I feel like the tide is starting to turn?

The Russian Fall/Winter Offensive was a greater failure than even our most optimistic assessment. That even accounts for new Russian advances recorded in the last 24 hours and what you could call offensive round two starting in more limited areas.

There are many unknowns, and as an analyst team, we remain pessimistic that Speaker Johnson will advance a package that includes military aid for Ukraine in 2024. I personally believe that Johnson is already walking the metaphorical political green mile, and no matter what he decides, his political clout will be damaged. The glimmer of hope is a group of moderate Republicans in the House have publicly expressed deep frustration with the Freedom Caucus in the last 24 hours. Including calls for some to be removed from committee assignments and others to be censured. In swing districts, some moderates are increasingly concerned that the "do nothing" approach is already starting to hurt their reelection efforts (US congresspeople are elected every two years, so members of the House of Representatives are in a state of perpetual campaigning).

Ukraine needs to achieve four things.

1. Get the attritional warfare math to a minimum of a 1:10 ratio theaterwide. This is possible but requires long-term external support and continued adaptation. It also requires major reforms in their military training programs.

2. Exhaust Russia's Cold War inventory advantage. This is ongoing but will take another 18 to 24 months to achieve. Sanctions combined with Russia's self-imposed isolation will continue to bite harder.

3. Increase its own war production capacity and continue to find ways to adapt to stay ahead of the sword and shield equation.

4. The ability to strike Russian infrastructure within Russia at scale and repeatedly.

The tide may not have turned, but the future is looking better than it did 90 days ago.

I hope Congress enjoys another long weekend.