Chapter 91

Strictly speaking, this was another mishap caused by Aegor's insufficient foresight. His plan to disrupt Littlefinger’s schemes had succeeded—so far, at least. Petyr Baelish had lost his grip in King’s Landing, and his ultimate gambit in the Vale was now under siege. The grand ambitions of this master conspirator had been unearthed and smashed to pieces by an outsider’s intervention. Yet in his focus on Baelish, Aegor had overlooked one critical detail: the adulterous woman involved in his plan.

Now, the “brilliant” mastermind behind the scenes was himself caught in the crossfire of rumors that had spiraled out of control. Aegor could only chuckle bitterly—of course, there was no such thing as a perfect solution. Taking down a major antagonist so easily would naturally have its consequences. Regret was useless now. What mattered was assessing the future trajectory of the situation and finding ways to profit—or, at the very least, mitigate the potential damage.

As an outsider with limited understanding of this world, Aegor knew his own analysis would inevitably be flawed. Consulting someone born and raised in Westeros, especially one as well-read as Tyrion, would provide invaluable perspective.

That evening, Tyrion learned of the news.

After a lengthy discussion, they reached a grim conclusion: war seemed inevitable.
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From Aegor’s perspective, the League of Justice’s actions were truly righteous. Removing a sickly, neurotic mother who had murdered her husband from power and placing the boy heir under the joint guardianship of loyal noble houses to raise him into a capable and virtuous ruler was an admirable goal. However, while the information Aegor had spread was true, it had been disseminated as rumors. This ensured that while the public might believe it, it could not be used to justify such a disruption of the established order.

As King of the Andals, the First Men, and the Rhoynar, Protector of the Realm and Ruler of the Seven Kingdoms, Robert Baratheon could not tolerate a great lord under his rule being overthrown by a coalition of lesser vassals. Allowing such insubordination would severely undermine the authority of the Iron Throne. A liege lord’s greatest shame was failing to protect their vassals. Even if Lysa Tully’s crimes were proven beyond doubt, it would be up to the king—not her vassals—to punish her. That was the feudal order.

It was harsh, but that was how the system worked.
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“The Iron Throne and this… League of Justice will likely engage in some back-and-forth negotiations,” Tyrion analyzed. “But it’s almost certain to end in deadlock. After founding his new dynasty, Robert made many compromises to stabilize his reign. He overlooked Dorne Martell and the Reach’s loyalty to the Targaryens, married my sister to secure an alliance with House Lannister, and made Jon Arryn Hand of the King to appease the Starks, Tullys, and Arryns, who felt undercompensated for their contributions in the war. Those were all great houses—it was humiliating to bend to them, but not disgraceful. But Royce and Waynwood? Who are they?”

“And besides,” Tyrion continued, frowning, “our good king has been idle for years. Tournaments no longer satisfy him. Even if only to relive the thrill of command, Robert won’t make any concessions. And as for the League, they’ve already taken action. There’s no way they’ll simply abandon their gains and return home to face punishment.”

Aegor had no illusions about Robert’s flaws, but he also couldn’t dismiss the king’s military prowess. To fight Robert Baratheon—both a ruler and a proven commander—was among the most foolish things one could do in Westeros. Balon Greyjoy’s rebellion was proof enough. “What gives these lords the confidence to stand against Robert? How can a few Vale houses hope to win?”

“They have two advantages,” Tyrion explained. “The Bloody Gate and the Crown’s financial troubles. In short: an impregnable stronghold and Robert’s empty coffers. For thousands of years, the Bloody Gate has never been taken by force. The League seized it with an insider’s help, and they won’t give Robert the same opportunity. As for the treasury—anyone with ears in the Red Keep knows it’s bone-dry. If Robert’s forces get bogged down at the Bloody Gate, camping there for months, he’ll have no choice but to negotiate.”

“If the Crown is broke and war breaks out, Robert will turn to his vassals for loans,” Aegor said, a chill running down his spine. “Our creditors will likely redeem their bonds, and any potential investments will fall through.”

“Exactly. This is bad news for us.” Tyrion let out a long breath. “If Robert marches on the Vale, my father will almost certainly send troops as a gesture of support. My family has money, but it doesn’t grow on trees. There’s no way I’ll be able to borrow from them.”

“We need to run the numbers. What can our current funds withstand?”
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After careful calculations, the results were bleak. If they immediately dissolved their staff, halted factory construction, withheld wages, delayed payments to contractors, and pooled all available funds—including personal assets and the Iron Throne’s allocations for the Night’s Watch—they could survive a redemption rate of up to 70%. It was a decent outcome, considering the game had only just begun and they hadn’t squandered any resources yet.

If redemptions stayed below 50%, the business could limp forward, but the risk of a total collapse would remain high. At 50-70%, survival hinged on Robert quickly securing a decisive victory. If redemptions exceeded 70%, Aegor might as well pack up and sail east to beg Daenerys for asylum, while Tyrion started drafting a letter asking Tywin to clean up his mess.

Tyrion, at least, had the advantage of being Tywin’s son. No matter how humiliating, he wouldn’t suffer greatly. But Aegor? A runaway Night’s Watch officer caught running “financial schemes” in King’s Landing? What reason would Daenerys have to take him in?
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“Impossible…” Aegor’s face twisted with frustration. Losing his financial backing was a blow he couldn’t stomach. Worse still, this wasn’t the work of any one person. There was no target for his anger.

“Calm down. Panicking won’t help. We’re the first to know about this, so let’s think: can we use this head start to our advantage?” Tyrion urged.

Aegor paused. The phrase head start triggered a flash of inspiration. Before his transmigration, what would he have done if he’d stumbled upon inside information like this?

Sell off vulnerable assets and pivot to opportunities in military markets.

Even if this war escalated, it would remain a localized conflict. If Robert faltered at the Bloody Gate, the Vale lords wouldn’t dare mount a counteroffensive beyond their borders. In fact, the war might even stabilize Westeros by exhausting pent-up tensions. As long as Aegor weathered the storm, his financial ventures wouldn’t collapse.

“We need to purchase grain and military supplies immediately. When the news breaks, prices will skyrocket. We can profit from the difference and stabilize our cash flow.”

“What?” Tyrion nearly fell off his chair. “Who suddenly buys massive quantities of that stuff? You’ll be screaming to everyone that you’ve got insider knowledge and are trying to profit from war! Do you think the Crown’s officials are fools?”

“I’m not just anyone,” Aegor said, narrowing his eyes. “I’m the Chief Logistics Officer of the Night’s Watch. With ten thousand wildlings threatening the Wall, I have every reason to stockpile supplies for the defense of Westeros. Even if Eddard Stark pressures me to keep prices fair, no one will accuse me of profiteering—or dare to cut off my head. As long as I make it look reasonable and act the part, this will work.”

Tyrion stared at him for a long moment, then smiled. “Fair enough. You do have the perfect cover. But it’s still risky. Let me suggest an improvement: share the profits. Involve others, spread the risk. That way, no one will come after you.”
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The room fell silent as the two began working out the details of their next gamble.