Chapter 270

The Wall was supposed to be humanity's great shield, the last line of defense against extinction. But somewhere along the way, people began to treat it as a dumping ground, shoving one problem after another onto the Night's Watch. Robb Stark bore no ill will toward the Watch, but when he thought about it, he had to admit the truth: that was exactly what had happened.

Realizing this, even the young Warden of the North—who had trained himself to exude the air of a leader—felt a twinge of guilt. "This problem does exist," he admitted. "But I promise, the North will always be the Night's Watch's steadfast ally."

Robb was undoubtedly sincere, but sincerity alone wasn't enough. The world was never short of heartfelt promises; it lacked real action. And since the Night's Watch's protection primarily benefited the North, Aegor wasn't exactly overflowing with gratitude. After formally thanking Robb on behalf of the Watch, he simply continued staring at him.

...

After a few seconds of their second silent exchange, Robb seemed to realize why Aegor hadn't taken his leave. Smiling faintly, he said, "There's really nothing else. Is there something you want to ask me?"

This meeting should have ended already. Aegor had stood to leave three times but paused each time, thinking about Robb's question. Finally, he realized there was something he wanted to ask—something he technically had no right to, but which deeply concerned the Night's Watch. Would the Northern army once again march south, leaving the Wall undefended, to fight in Stannis Baratheon's war for his throne?

It was a military secret, but Aegor asked anyway. After all, given the relationship between the Watch and the North, the worst Robb could do was refuse to answer.

Robb's expression shifted, growing complex. After a few seconds of hesitation, he spoke. "If I tell you the truth, can you keep it to yourself?"

"Of course. Who would I tell?"

The North was the Watch's strongest ally, its most reliable support in the coming war of ice and fire. Aegor had no reason to betray House Stark.

"Before I returned from the South, I received a secret letter from the ruler of Dorne, Prince Doran Martell," Robb began. "In it, he made a proposal: if the North withdrew from the war, Dorne would also pull back its forces. At the time, I was struggling to fend off the Reach's armies, while the North was being ravaged by the Ironborn. After much deliberation, I decided to return home and deal with the invasion. I informed King Stannis of my decision in advance. To my surprise, His Grace abandoned his siege of Storm’s End and launched a surprise attack on Randyll Tarly, who was opposing me. The rest, as they say, is history."

"But everyone in Westeros knows you returned to fight the Ironborn and won," Aegor pointed out. "They don’t know about Prince Doran’s letter, or that you intended to withdraw from the war. None of this makes sense. The North is the Northmen’s home; they had no choice but to return eventually. If Prince Doran were truly committed to the rebels, he’d have seized this chance to attack King’s Landing rather than withdrawing. And if he never intended to fight, why join the war at all and antagonize the crown? Rebellion is all or nothing; you can’t ride two horses at once."

"You’d have to ask Prince Doran that," Robb sighed. "But let me clarify: I haven’t reached an agreement with him. When I disbanded my army, I gave the men leave to visit their families and rest, without setting a date for reassembly. I wanted to take this time to search for Bran and consider my next steps."

...

Aegor could understand Robb’s predicament. From the North’s perspective, they had fought two wars in as many years for Robert Baratheon and his brother. The time away from home and the casualties had taken their toll, sapping the soldiers’ will to fight and the people’s patience for providing supplies. And short-term gains from their victories against the Westerlands and the Reach had left the Northmen eager to enjoy their spoils in peace.

But a ruler’s decisions couldn’t be dictated by short-term interests or public opinion. If the North declared peace and withdrew, the consequences for their allies in the Riverlands and the Vale would be dire. The North, the Riverlands, and the Vale had always advanced and retreated together. If the North pulled out, the others might follow suit. Stannis Baratheon would be left isolated, and his defeat would be inevitable. That would hand the Iron Throne to the Reach-backed Aegon Targaryen. Once secure, Aegon would hardly tolerate a Northern alliance that had defied him.

The Riverlands lacked natural defenses. Once Aegon’s banners flew across the Trident, the North would lose its granary. Even with Moat Cailin and the Eyrie, the North and the Vale would only be able to defend themselves, not reclaim the initiative. The Vale could survive on its wealth, but the North would struggle to grow its population or survive winters without devastating losses.

It was a grim dilemma.

...

"If I refuse to fight, will Westeros see me as weak, someone who can forgive even the murder of my father?" Robb asked, his brow furrowed. "But if I continue to fight, Dorne will oppose me, and the war will remain a stalemate. Worse, winter is here."

The weight of the decision was immense, and Robb dared not make it alone. But he couldn’t openly consult his Northern lords, either. Since he had already confided in Aegor, it seemed only natural to ask his opinion. "I’ve told you the truth, ‘the smartest man in the Night’s Watch.’ What do you suggest? What should I do?"

"I can’t presume to guide you in such a matter," Aegor replied, "but I do have one immediate suggestion. As the Lord of Winterfell, the Warden of the North, how can you base your decision on whether others see you as weak?"

"Isn’t personal image important for a ruler?"

"It is," Aegor agreed, "but even the greatest truth becomes a fallacy if applied without context. Do you think the Northern, Riverlands, and Vale lords who’ve followed you through war see you as weak? Does King Stannis? What matters most to you are the opinions of these people. As for the Northern common folk, even if they misunderstand you, how much does that truly matter? And the views of the other kingdoms—let’s be blunt—mean even less. If your enemies underestimate you because of this, it could even work to your advantage."

"That makes sense. So I should decisively withdraw from the war?"

"I never said that," Aegor quickly clarified. "My point is that you should put personal honor aside and focus on what benefits the North. We need to comprehensively analyze all factors and decide based on what’s best for the North."

...