Chapter 271

"In all situations, the opponent’s intent is the most important," Aegor said. "So why don't we first consider why Prince Doran Martell would engage in such a thankless task? After you led the Northern army off the battlefield, did the Dornish forces also withdraw as agreed?"

"As far as I know, yes."

Aegor rested his chin in his hand, pondering for a moment before looking up again. "I don’t know Doran Martell personally, but I did have some dealings with his brother. From Oberyn’s attitude when mentioning his elder brother, it’s clear that this ruler of Dorne is no fool. There must be a reason behind his actions. It’s best we review the broader situation and try to deduce Prince Doran’s true intentions."

"Alright." Robb, who had been struggling with this issue for months, had never approached it from such a perspective. Intrigued by Aegor’s way of thinking, he decided to review the situation as suggested. "When King Stannis marched south, he sent a call to arms to Dorne, but it received no response. It wasn’t until the royal forces and loyalist army surrounded Storm’s End that the Dornish suddenly emerged from the south—ignoring the King’s stern orders. Though they didn’t officially declare war, their movements were unmistakably hostile, forcing Stannis to divide his attention from the siege. At the same time, the Northern forces were holding off the Reach’s reinforcements to the west of Storm’s End, resulting in a stalemate. Then, I received a letter from Prince Doran."

Robb paused for a sip of water before continuing. "There’s no doubt that the Dornish didn’t want King Stannis to reclaim Storm’s End and defeat the rebels. But what’s puzzling is that they also didn’t follow Aegon Targaryen’s orders. After the Northern forces withdrew, and the King also left Storm’s End, the Golden Company and their hired or newly formed mercenaries launched an offensive toward King’s Landing. Yet at the perfect moment to capitalize on this advance, the Dornish army retreated instead. With the Reach’s forces weakened and unable to support, Aegon’s rebellion was stymied. Aside from Storm’s End and a small portion of the lands south of it, the King still controls most of the Stormlands and the Crownlands."

...

Even before finishing his account, Robb realized the advantage of Aegor’s detached perspective. Reviewing the events surrounding the battle for Storm’s End exposed blind spots in his own reasoning. "The Reach may still have resources, but the Tyrells’ repeated defeats have shattered their credibility. The Westerlands remain neutral, but due to the Kingslayer’s murder of the Mad King, they’d never side with the Targaryens. Dorne has yet to truly commit to the fight. Without external support, whether this Aegon Targaryen is real or not, he stands no chance of victory!"

"Exactly! See? We’ve already reached our first consensus: the rebels have no chance of winning," Aegor agreed. "But in this situation, why would Dorne get involved yet refuse to fully commit? What are they after?"

"I’m curious about that too."

"Speculation won’t get us anywhere. Let’s focus on what Dorne has gained from this war." Aegor leaned forward, resting his arms on the desk once used by Eddard Stark. "Without losing a single soldier, simply by maneuvering in the Stormlands, Dorne prevented a seasoned king from reclaiming his childhood home. With just pen and ink, they compelled the North’s most powerful army to withdraw according to their wishes. Whoever devised these strategies is brilliant. But what has Dorne actually gained from all this?"

"What have they gained?" Robb hesitated, puzzled. "It seems... they’ve gained nothing at all?"

"Not 'seems'—they’ve gained nothing. In fact, they’ve even had to bear the costs of supplying their army. Only a fool would engage in such a self-damaging endeavor. But we’ve already ruled out the possibility of Prince Doran being a fool." Aegor’s tone turned more deliberate as he sifted through what felt like memories of the original plotline. He began piecing together the answer. "Eliminating all other possibilities leaves only one: House Martell isn’t trying to gain something—they’re trying to prevent losing something."

Losing what? Robb was increasingly confused. Resolved to get to the bottom of this, he cast aside his pride as Warden of the North and earnestly asked, "Dorne did support House Targaryen during Robert’s Rebellion, but that’s ancient history. King Stannis has often been criticized for his rigid sense of justice, but he’s not so paranoid as to dig up old grudges once his rule is secure. What are they afraid of losing?"

"Stability," Aegor replied. "More specifically, the chaotic status quo. Dorne’s overall strength ranks low among the Seven Kingdoms. On an ordinary day, they lack the means to shake the foundations of Westeros. If they had stayed out of the war, King Stannis would have captured Storm’s End, driven out or destroyed the Golden Company, and then used the combined strength of four kingdoms to subdue the Reach, potentially even restoring the unity of Robert’s reign. Once the King firmly sits on the Iron Throne, Dorne would have no choice but to submit. Their intervention at this critical moment isn’t about gaining power but ensuring the Seven Kingdoms don’t return to a stable state."

"Aegon Targaryen is Prince Doran’s nephew. If his claim is legitimate, and Dorne supports him, he would surely reward them once he ascends the throne. What could be more advantageous than helping their nephew secure the crown?"

"Good question: what could be more advantageous than placing their nephew on the throne?" Aegor countered. "What do you think?"

...

"House Martell aiming to crown themselves?" Robb hesitated for a long moment before making the guess. "But their Targaryen blood is too diluted to matter, and they have no legitimate claim to the Iron Throne. How could they possibly succeed?"

"True, House Martell has no claim on its own. But what if a Martell were to marry the last true Targaryen?"

"The last true Targaryen?" Robb’s expression changed as he quickly realized who Aegor was referring to. Only two Targaryens were publicly recognized, and only one was a woman who could be married. "I see! They want to keep Westeros in chaos, weaken their potential rivals, and then, when Daenerys Targaryen returns from across the Narrow Sea, marry her and claim the throne through her."

This revelation unraveled all of Robb’s confusion, and he felt a sudden clarity. "No wonder! Dorne has consistently avoided fully committing to the conflict. They won’t even publicly acknowledge Aegon Targaryen’s identity. Yet they’ve blocked Stannis from reclaiming Storm’s End and sent me letters urging agreements. They’re ensuring Stannis remains unsteady while they bide their time to marry Daenerys. Once they do, they’ll discredit Aegon and claim the throne for themselves!"

"Precisely. It’s the simplest explanation that fits all the facts," Aegor said. Though deducing such a conclusion required an extraordinary leap of reasoning, he knew the truth from his past knowledge, making it far easier to present a plausible line of thought.

Robb, though shocked, regained his composure. "I must inform King Stannis of this suspicion. We can’t let Dorne profit from this chaos!"

"Understandable reaction, but what’s your plan? How will you convince the King? And even if he believes you, what can he do—declare war on Dorne?"

"That..." Robb was at a loss, frustration returning to his face. Recognizing Aegor’s brilliance firsthand, he looked to him once more, this time seeking guidance. "So even if we uncover Dorne’s true intentions, we can do nothing about it?"

"I can’t give you a definitive answer. That depends on you." Aegor shrugged, steering the conversation subtly toward his advantage. "Prince Doran has already shown his stance. If the North marches south again, Dorne will undoubtedly retaliate. They may want to preserve their strength, but if necessary, they won’t hesitate to fight. So, the path forward depends on answering a few key questions."

Robb handed Aegor a cup of water, nodding for him to continue. Aegor took a sip and asked, "If the North and Dorne both fully join the war, will the King’s side still maintain its advantage? Can you muster forces strong enough to surpass Dorne’s? And even if you can, how will you ensure the North remains safe from threats like the Ironborn or the White Walkers?"

...

As Robb contemplated, the harsh reality of the North’s position became clear. Though their soldiers were among the finest in Westeros, the distance to the Stormlands, compounded by the region's previous battles, left them at a disadvantage. The answer was obvious, yet Robb despised being forced to act according to his enemy’s designs.

"Is there no way to break this deadlock?"

"There is—if one side achieves a decisive victory. For example, if King Stannis captures or kills Aegon Targaryen—or vice versa—the war will end swiftly. Otherwise, the only option is to sway the Westerlands." Aegor’s response was immediate and blunt. "As for undermining Prince Doran’s strategy, it’s nearly impossible. The beauty of an open strategy is that it remains effective even when exposed. Even if Doran declared his plans publicly, both sides would still have no choice but to fight."

Faced with this reality, Robb reluctantly decided on a course of action. He slammed the table in frustration. "Then I’ll continue to declare my support for King Stannis, reassuring the Riverlands and the Vale while conserving our strength in the North, waiting for the right moment to re-enter the war."

"A sound decision, and you have the perfect excuse." Aegor smiled. "After returning to the North, announce that the threat of the White Walkers has grown too severe to ignore, forcing you to stay and defend your lands until it’s resolved."

Robb raised an eyebrow, intrigued. "That’s... a good idea."

"And don’t forget, Prince Doran only requested that your army withdraw from the battlefield, not that the North entirely exit the war, correct?"

"That’s right."

"Then it’s simple. Use Doran’s own tactics against him: stay in the North, prepare for the coming winter, and quietly strengthen your position for Daenerys Targaryen’s return. Meanwhile, openly support the King with supplies and resources, ensuring your loyalty is unquestionable. Dorne and the Reach may support the rebels similarly, but their fractured alliances can’t match the cohesion of the North, the Vale, the Riverlands, and the Crownlands. While their factions remain divided by ambition and mistrust, our side will act with unity and purpose."